India’s sugar production will likely drop by 4 per cent to 31.6 million tonnes (mt) for the October 2023-September 2024 season from 32.9 mt in the previous season, according to the first estimate released by the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA). The estimated production, with a variation of plus or minus 3 per cent, has not included diversion of sucrose of about 2 mt for ethanol production.

As the government has kept the total quantity of sucrose diversion to make ethanol at 1.7 mt for the whole season, the trade body’s higher estimate for diversion indicates some relaxation by the government could be possible in the coming days, an industry expert said.

“Any estimate made before or immediately after the crushing starts is subject to large variation, say 15-20 per cent, therefore the estimates made in January are better and more reliable,” AISTA Chairman Praful Vithalani said in a statement.

Closing stock pegged at 8.2 mt

According to the trade body, the estimated availability of sugar in the country is likely to be 37.3 mt this season, which is higher than domestic consumption estimated at 29 mt. The opening stock of sugar as on October 1, 2023 was 5.7 mt, it said adding the closing stock might be around 8.2 mt in the 2023-24 season.

Sugar production in Uttar Pradesh, the largest sugarcane producing state, has been pegged at 11.7 mt this season, 9.3 per cent higher than 10.7 mt last season. In Maharashtra, the sugar output is set to drop 10.3 per cent to 9.6 mt from 10.7 mt and in Karnataka it may dip by 16.1 per cent to 4.7 mt from 5.6 mt.

For other States, the total production may remain stagnant at 4.2 mt, though there could be variation in individual state.

Diversion of sugarcane to gur and khandsari units in Uttar Pradesh is more than the last season, as these units are giving higher cane prices to farmers, AISTA said. Overall, the crop is good in UP and mills are expected to operate till March-end. Some mills may continue crushing operation until first fortnight of April due to climate change, foggy weather and lower sunshine.

Rise in unregistered crop

“The unseasonal rains in Maharashtra have increased the yield and sucrose content. Further, the unregistered crop has also increased the availability of sugarcane which is likely to result in more sugar production than what was initially expected,” Vithalani said. The crushing season may prolong in the state due to non-availability of labour for harvesting. “This will give more time for standing sugarcane to mature, increasing the yield and sucrose content in cane,” he said. Mills in Maharashtra are expected to operate till March-end.

Though it was feared in the beginning of the season there would be drastic reduction in sugar production in Karnataka due to drought, but thanks to unseasonal rains in November yield as well as sucrose content in cane have improved.

Vithalani said the estimate has been made taking into account the quantum of sugarcane crushed, and yield and recovery rates achieved so far. Besides, remaining standing crop and the diversions of sucrose for production of ethanol are also considered before finalising the first estimate.

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