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Adverse weather conditions and pest infestation in three key sugarcane-growing States have forced the sugar industry to revise its production target for the current sugar season (October 2018-September 2019).
The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said it expects production of the sweetener in the current sugar year to be around 31.5 tonnes (LT) — similar to what was produced in the previous season — as sugarcane output in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which account for 80 per cent of the yield, is affected.
While untimely rains in September and waterlogging in some sugarcane-growing areas are feared to impact yield in Uttar Pradesh, scanty rainfall and infestation by white grub larvae may hit the sugarcane output in Maharashtra and Northern Karnataka, ISMA said. All these States were earlier said to head for bumper production, per industry projections.
According to ISMA’s revised estimates Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka would produce 121 lt (earlier 135 lt ), 108 lt (115 lt ) and 42 lt (44.2 lt ), respectively.
Also contributing to the dip in sugar production is diversion of a limited quantity of B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice for ethanol production. Many sugar mills have come forward to offer the supply of more ethanol as the government has come out with a revised biofuels policy.
The new policy, announced in August this year, was aimed at discouraging sugar mills from producing more sugar as there is already a glut in the market, and to lure them towards ethanol production.
According to ISMA, when the tender for ethanol procurement for the current season was opened by Oil Marketing Companies, sugar mills had made a commitment to produce 48.5 crore litres of ethanol from B heavy molasses and 1.84 crore litres from sugarcane juice, entailing a diversion of 4.5-5 LT of sugar into ethanol.
Sugarcane crushing has not yet started in most areas and, therefore, a better picture will emerge once crushing starts and actual trend of yields and sugar recoveries become available, it said.
Considering that the opening balance was 107 lt as on October 1, 2018 with an expected domestic consumption of around 255-260 lt, if the industry is able to export 40-50 lt during the season, the closing balance as on September 30, 2019 would be around 112-127 lt , it added.
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