India's sugar exports are estimated to increase 15.38 per cent year-on-year to 7.5 million tonnes (mt) in the current marketing year 2021-22, on likely rise in demand for the Indian sweetener amid the possibility of a global deficit, industry body ISMA said on Friday.

The country has physically exported 4.2 mt of sugar till February of the current marketing year, against the export contracts already undertaken for shipment of six million tonne, it said.

Sugar marketing year runs from October to September. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer after Brazil.

According to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), "India will export 7.5 million tonne sugar in the current season, as against six million tonne estimated earlier."

Higher exports from India are possible as the International Sugar Organisation (ISO) in its report has indicated a global deficit of around 1.93 mt for the marketing year 2021-22 (October-September) and interest of exporters to buy more Indian sugar, it said.

Indian exporters are likely to ship another 1.2-1.3 mt in March, taking the total physical exports to 5.4-5.5 mt by then, it added.

Sharing the latest sugar production figures, ISMA said total production has reached 25.28 mt during the October-February period of the ongoing 2021-22 marketing year, up by 7.68 per cent from 23.48 million tonne of sugar in the year-ago period.

Sugar production

Sugar production in Uttar Pradesh, the country's top sugar-producing state, remained lower at 6.86 million tonnes during the October-February period of this marketing year, as against 7.42 mt in the year-ago period.

However, sugar production in Maharashtra, the country's second-largest producing state, rose to 9.71 mt from 8.48 mt; while that in Karnataka, the country's third-largest producing state, rose to 5.08 mt from 4.08 mt in the said period.

Sugar production reached 7,93,000 tonnes in Gujarat and 4,53,000 tonnes in Tamil Nadu till February of the ongoing marketing year. The remaining states collectively produced 2.37 mt in the said period, ISMA said in a statement.

ISMA said sugarcane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka is higher than what was expected earlier. As a result, the production estimate for Maharashtra and Karnataka has been revised upward for this year, while not much change is expected in other states including Uttar Pradesh.

Consequently, the country's total sugar production estimate has been revised higher at 33.3 mt for 2021-22 marketing year, considering diversion of 3.4 mt of sugar equivalent to ethanol, it added.

The country is estimated to have a closing stock of 6.8 mt at the end of September this year.

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