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After hitting a low of ₹150-155 a kg at the Unjha spot market in North Gujarat in March, jeera (cumin seed) prices are on an upward journey, as arrivals shrink and export orders pick up.
The spice commodity’s prospects turned bearish after various trade bodies estimated higher production — in the range of 3.75-4.40 lakh tonnes — primarily on higher acreage and favourable climate. Jeera production for the previous year was put at 2.75 lakh tonnes.
“After correcting about 20-22 per cent from the peak levels within a span of about three months, prices have recovered by about 5-7 per cent. This shows that the bearish trend is over and now jeera prices will head upwards as the crop may not be as high as expected,” said a exporter-trader source in Unjha.
A steep fall from the peak of ₹21,000 a quintal in December 2017 to ₹15,860 in March 2018 was attributed to increased arrivals at the beginning of the harvest season in February. Earlier in February, jeera futures had touched low levels last seen during June 2016 on expectations of 25-30 per cent rise in production than the last year. The most active May delivery contract on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange is at ₹15,765/quintal.
However, a revival in the recent tradehinted at an upside. Daily arrivals hovered around 30,000 bags (each of 55 kg), as against the expectation of 50,000 bags considering the bumper crop. Traders maintained that with arrivals dropping and export enquiries increasing, prices are firming up. Global demand for Indian jeera has firmed up as Syria and Turkey crop will arrive only around June-July. Mandi sources maintained that export enquiries have been good as India is the only jeera supplier to the world market currently. However, the progress of monsoon and Syrian crop are to be watched for.
“The current market conditions and the export prospects hint towards a bull-phase in jeera. There is no likelihood of prices returning to the previous low levels. A fluctuation of 5-7 per cent is likely, but we look at ₹175-180/kg levels for jeera by Diwali,” said an industry expert.
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