July fails to deliver rain, clouds monsoon outlook

Normally the rainiest monsoon month, July perpetuated the deficit from June, forcing weatherw agencies to re-assess their overall rain outlook for the 2018 monsoon season.

The India Met Department (IMD) had expected July to return 101 per cent rainfall but it has ended up with only 94 per cent, with the West Coast and the North-Eastern States disappointing.

Trend holds

July started off with a promising note with Central India and North-West India delivering normal to surplus rains but the West Coast as well as the North-East performed way below par.

The trend has continued till date, though some global models suggest continued sea-based activity off Odisha and Bengal, with a likely circulation maturing into another low-pressure area. It remains to be seen what August, the second rainiest month, can possibly yield.

Skymet’s predictions

How far down is the moot question now, the Equatorial Pacific seeing sustained warming, which presages progressively monsoon-unfriendly El Nino conditions.

 

 

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ecaster Skymet Weather came out with a bleak outlook on Wednesday, predicting that the monsoon might go into a weak phase in August, with ‘break’ conditions thrown in.

‘Break monsoon’

‘Break monsoon’ conditions means rain shutting out over most parts of the country except in the North-East and along parts of East India, especially Tamil Nadu.

How long the ‘break’ conditions will linger decides the fate of the monsoon. A sustained shut-out will translate into a significant setback on the farm front.

The truant monsoon has impacted sowing of key kharif crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds and cotton, among others. As of July 27, sowing was down by about 7.5 per cent at 737.96 lakh hectares as against 797.69 lakh ha in the corresponding period last year.

Skymet has predicted that August may end with only 88 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) against the 94 per cent made by IMD as stated in its second long-range forecast.

September could likely deliver 93 per cent, according to Skymet, which could prove too little, too late. IMD hasn’t taken a call on September, when the monsoon starts to withdraw.

Skymet quoted Jatin Singh, MD, as saying that the oceanic parameters are not at all favourable for enhanced monsoon rains during the second half of the season.

Dams in Kerala

The normally rainiest pockets of North-East India, which are already in deficit, and the West Coast, may sustain a trend in which they continue to perform poorer than usual.

Considering the present scenario, Skymet Weather has updated the forecast for monsoon 2018 to 92 per cent of the LPA.

Expected rainfall from a prevailing low-pressure area over central Uttar Pradesh and a preparatory circulation ahead of a successor off the Bengal-Odisha coast may help improve the situation.

The Met has assessed that this circulation may concentrate into a fresh ‘low’ in another week’s time but it has already triggered activity along the Kerala coast and adjoining extreme South Peninsula.

Dam authorities are keeping a strict watch over the evolving situation in Kerala.