Wednesday’s low-pressure area over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal (off South Odisha-north coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts) intensified a round to become ‘well-marked.’

But that’s about all that one would get to hear about its growth dynamics, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

DRY WINDS

It saw the system weakening sooner than later but dropping disparate amounts of rainfall for East India and parts of Central India, the East Coast and over peninsular India.

The weakening will result from the mixing of dry northwesterly winds from north and northwest India, according to wind maps prepared by India Met Department.

The ‘low’ will manage to climb over into the land only to be buffeted by the strong and dry winds. The flows around its flanks will cause it to move into Uttar Pradesh and trigger downpour locally.

It could still help leave the monsoon trough (from northwest Rajasthan to the Bay of Bengal) in readiness to host another incoming ‘low’ – should there be one – from the Bay during the first week of September.

DEFICIT AT 12 PER CENT

On Thursday the overall rain deficit for the country as a whole stayed put at 12 per cent even as the ‘Big Dry’ from Northwest India threatened to grow bigger.

The deficit in Northwest India has gone up to seven per cent in direct contrast to the large surpluses it enjoyed during the heydays in June-July.

Adjoining Central India has seen the shortfall inch up steadily to 15 per cent now; a few rounds of showers expected here during the next few days may not make any big difference.

East and Northeast India is now showing a deficit of six per cent - the smallest of the four main geographic regions - while South Peninsula retained the 20-per cent figure, the highest.

The overall deficit could grow beyond the 12 per cent estimated in advance by India Met for the four-month season - a fait accompli that it is handed already with more than a month to spare.

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