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Monsoon may stay strong into next week too, says European agency

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on July 19, 2021

The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees a belt of heavy rain building along the West Coast and diagonally across Peninsular India into the next week.

West Coast, East India and parts of North-West India under radar

If the ongoing week has seen the monsoon reveal its virulent self to the battered West Coast and the soggy plains of North-West India, the coming week does not look like hardly anything markedly different, said an outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

India Meteorological Department (IMD) too shares a similar outlook saying, skies may clear up by turn over central India during the ongoing week and over the South Peninsula during the week that follows (July 23-29), coinciding with the last month of what is normally the rainiest of the four monsoon months.

Strengthening monsoon winds

Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction builds a case for these forecasts by pointing to the possibility of an area of low pressure deepening over the Arabian Sea (or strengthening of the westerlies) and the adjoining North-West India during week from July 21 to 27.

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This is in turn attributed to an enhanced phase of the cloud and moisture-boosting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that periodically traverses the Indian Ocean. The ECMWF however doubts if it would prop up a canonical low-pressure area, and if it does, whether it will be able to cross the coast.

Dumps heavy rain over coast

The 24 hours ending on Monday morning more or less carried over from where the monsoon ended the previous day dumping heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls over Konkan and Goa; heavy to very heavy rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.

It was heavy over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, East Gujarat, Coastal Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, covering overall the West Coast, North-West and East India.

Uran records rare 45 cm of rain

Uran near Mumbai was pulverised with an unprecedented 45 cm of torrential rain during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning. Other centres recording heavy rain (in cm) are Thane-28; Matheran-27; Palampur-23; Ulhasnagar-20; Mormugao and Harnai-19 each; Gopipur-18; Panjim and Ratnagiri-15 each; Shahjahanpur-13; Kathua, Narnaul and Long Island-12 each; Banda-11; Delhi (Palam), Bulsar and Mahabaleshwar-10 each; Bahraich-9; Bareilly, Patna and Sambalpur-8 each; Dehradun, Una, Patiala, Delhi (Safdarjung), Ambikapur, Aijal, Port Blair and Mumbai (Santacruz)-7 each.

Outlook for low-pressure area

A low-pressure area forming over the North-West Bay of Bengal off the Cuttack-Kolkata in another four days ( July 23) will likely send the monsoon soaring to another peak with heavy to very heavy rain heading back to the West Coast, the South Peninsula, East India and parts of North-West India.

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The ECMWF has predicted an almost diagonal corridor of intense rains developing from around Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh into Telangana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and East Rajasthan a few days after the ‘low’ forms. Some of the cities falling under this corridor are Hyderabad, Chandrapur, Nagpur, Amravati, Khandwa, Indore, Banswara, Ahmedabad and Palanpur.

Published on July 19, 2021

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