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The monsoon has started showing signs of a revival with the offshore trough along the west coast, which sets the thumb rule for intensity and spread of rainfall, showing some life.
It has reappeared as a feeble feature along the Karnataka-Kerala coast, just enough to nudge the rain belt largely over eastern India.
Perfect foil The persisting cyclonic circulation off North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Southern Odisha acted as a perfect foil as it re-oriented incoming flows from the Arabian Sea back towards the mainland. The offshore trough and the cyclonic circulation will continue to act in tandem to push the monsoon farther into the farming heartland over central and north-west India, forecasts have suggested.
Over the next two weeks, ending June 30, rainfall is expected to be close to normal on an all-India scale with no large departure, according to an extended forecast put out by the India Met Department, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and Central Institute for Dryland Agriculture.
However, there will be improvement of rainfall over central India and north-west India during the second week (June 24-30) compared to the first week (June 17-23).
Rainfall over the South Peninsula is expected to be normal to slightly above normal during the next two weeks.
The forecast According to this forecast, normal or above-normal rainfall is forecast during the next fortnight over Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, western Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. Normal or above normal rainfall is likely to occur in either of the next two weeks in Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Assam, Meghalaya, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Saurashtra, Kutch, Konkan, Goa, Vidarbha, and coastal Karnataka.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts maintains that monsoon flows will strengthen from Monday (June 20) onwards.
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