The India Met Department (IMD) seems to have withdrawn its outlook for the formation of a low-pressure area in the North Bay of Bengal by Sunday due to ‘weakening of the incoming monsoon flows across the Equator.’

This will translate into subdued rainfall activity over the southern States and the interior peninsula even as the northern half of the country continues to witness active monsoon conditions over the next four to five days.

Rains for North

An IMD update on Friday evening said that major rainfall activity will now be confined to North and adjoining Central India. Meanwhile, satellite pictures showed the monsoon rains drying up over Rajasthan.

September 1 is the normal date for withdrawal of monsoon from the north-western-most part of India, but expectations are that the withdrawal process would be blocked by concurrent rain over East, Central and North-West India.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicated that the rains will hold out over these areas for the next 10 days with some of these spilling over to northern parts of the West Coast (Mumbai-Konkan-Goa).

Meanwhile, the ensemble model of the US National Weather Services maintained its outlook that the Bay, especially the country’s East Coast, would continue to witness weather activity during the first 10 days of September.

In its forecast outlook on Friday, the IMD said that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely to continue over Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next four days.

Rain outlook

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over the North-Eastern States, Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha on Friday and Sunday. A similar outlook is valid for Bihar on Sunday and Tuesday and for Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on Sunday and Monday.

Outlook for tomorrow said heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, which is expected to improve the rain deficit scenario in these States.

Heavy rain has been forecast over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

An extended outlook valid until September 7 said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls would lash the northern plains, East and North-East India. Isolated to scattered rainfall is indicated for the rest of the country.

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