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A pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, the rain-generating wave in the upper atmosphere, is in the process of leaving the Indian Ocean to the West Pacific.
The periodical wave of low pressure with embedded clouds and moisture has been responsible for enhanced monsoon conditions over India and South-East Asia in the past week.
Rare combination
It created a rare combination of five tropical storms/depressions operating concurrently over the West Pacific, with a few oriented in such a manner so as to boost the monsoon over India.
The away-movement of the MJO wave may weaken the monsoon flow over India, indications to which are already available over Central India, but may sustain the storms in the West Pacific.
This is the latest update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which has also retained an El Nino watch in the Equatorial Pacific, with a 50 per cent chance.
Last week, the International Research of Institute of Climate and Society at University of Columbia, US, too had hinted enhanced chances of an El Nino developing later this summer. Forecasters doubt if this would have any impact on the ongoing monsoon, but have indicated that the trend in the El Nino needs to be watched for implications for the next monsoon.
El Nino trend
Warming of the Equatorial Pacific under El Nino has often coincided with poor monsoon/drought over India in the past though there is no established cause-effect relationship between the two.
The Australian Bureau observed that, assisted by the MJO wave, tropical cyclone activity across the West Pacific has been well above-average this month. Two tropical cyclones, Son-Tinh and Ampil, have significantly affected the region in the past week eve as a third one, Wukong, has recently formed to the East of Japan.
Some of the churn in the West Pacific/South China Sea is seen to be sending out feelers westwards to feed the ongoing monsoon over the eastern and northern parts of India.
A current well-marked low-pressure area (from an erstwhile depression) is getting an extended lease of life under the influence of the monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal as well as the West Pacific.
Heavy rain seen
This morning, India Met Department (IMD) located the system to over North-West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining South Uttar Pradesh. It may slowly move west-northwestwards and cause widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls over West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan during the next two days.
Heavy rainfall is also likely over northern parts of Interior Maharashtra and East and South Uttar Pradesh during this period. As for today, IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan.
It will be heavy to very heavy over East Gujarat, Assam, Meghalaya, hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and West Rajasthan.
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