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Isolated rain is forecast to return to parts of North India even as parts of South Peninsula braces to receive passing showers next week from some rough weather developing off the South Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.
A weather-making western disturbance is waiting its turn over North Afghanistan to move in further over Pakistan and North-West India. It has already sent in an offspring cyclonic circulation currently parked over West Rajasthan.
Scattered rain for North
Western disturbances are low-pressure waves originating from somewhere in the Mediterranean and making its way to the east across the planet, and principally responsible for modulating winter weather over North India. In view of this, the India Met Department (IMD) has forecast scattered rain over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next two to three days.
Moisture carried up front by the disturbance is forced to rise up against the heights of the Himalayas to precipitate as ice/snow over the hills or rain / thundershowers over the immediate plains.
The depth/intensity of the disturbance decides the extent to which the rains, which are a godsend for standing rabi crops, can spread out to cover Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, West Madhya Pradesh or West Uttar Pradesh.
‘Active’ disturbance
The existing disturbance is of moderate intensity; a successor is expected to roll in over by the weekend but does not offer big gains. The one forecast to approach North-West India next week is expected to be an ‘active’ one, as per initial readings.
Being expectedly more intense than the current one and immediate successor, the third one would be able to bring rains for more areas in North and North-West India.
Meanwhile, a trough of lower pressure over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal off the Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu coasts is forecast to usher in a wet spell for parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala early next week.
An IMD outlook says the rains could filter into neighbouring Karnataka and parts of Goa from Tuesday next (February 6) and last for three to four days.
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