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Weather forecasts for the next two weeks (January 11 to 24) indicate the possibility of excess rainfall for North-West India and West India from January 11 to 17, becoming widespread between January 18 to 24.
This is the consensus outlook issued as part of the National Agromet Advisory Service Bulletin based on an Extended Range Weather Forecast by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research; All India Coordinated Research Project on Agricultural Meteorology; Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture; and the India Meteorlogical Department (IMD).
Western disturbance
This is being attributed to enhanced western disturbance activity over North-West India in conjunction with building activity in the South and the adjoining Central Bay of Bengal during this period.
Wind-field projections by the IMD suggest that easterlies blowing in from the Bay steered by an anticyclone would interact with the westerlies/north-westerlies of the passing western disturbances to trigger passing showers/thundershowers in the second week.
This could lift the extended cold climes over South India due to the lack of moisture in the atmosphere/clouding, with a number of places in the Western Ghats reporting sub-zero temperatures for a week and more.
A weather tracker of the US Climate Prediction Centre has been maintaining the outlook for some activity being generated in the South Bay though it is not yet clear if it will convert itself into an organised weather system (low-pressure area).
Bay to get ‘active’
From January 11 to 17 excess rainfall has been indicated for Jammu & Kashmir; Himachal Pradesh; Uttarakhand; Punjab; Haryana; Delhi; Uttar Pradesh (West); Rajasthan; Gujarat (East); and normal over Saurashtra and Kutch.
In the following week, not only would these regions continue to receive excess showers (including Gujarat), they would spread out to Madhya Pradesh; Maharashtra; Andhra Pradesh; Telangana; Karnataka (except the Coastal areas); and Goa.
But deficient rainfall is indicated for Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bengal and the North-Eastern States during the entire fortnight.
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