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Rainfall for the country stays above normal at 13 per cent despite an intervening weak phase of the monsoon, with deficits retained over North-West India (West Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh); North-East India (Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura); West India (East Gujarat); while it remerged over South India (Kerala).
Sadasiva Subramaniam, General Secretary of the Kerala Cardamom Growers Association, told BusinessLine that the cardamom-growing areas bordering Kerala and Tamil Nadu have received only up to 50 per cent f the normal quota of the South-West monsoon rain during June and July.
Slight revival on cards
But indications are that monsoon would witness a slight revival with rains likely breaking out over parts of East-Central India and adjoining North-West India due to the diagonal monsoon trough getting its South-Eastern end to dip into the North Bay of Bengal to receive monsoon easterlies.
The rain-bearing easterlies could go on to set up a circulation over North-West and adjoining Central India and help distribute showers across Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Chandigarh as well as parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh later into the week.
The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal resemble ghost towns with hardly any activity and consequent lack of self-driving low-pressure area that can venture deep into the North-West India would leave most of Rajasthan and adjoining North Gujarat longing for rain.
Arrival of MJO wave
But an ensemble prediction by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that a rain-generating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave would approach the Arabian Sea and Peninsular India from July 17 and likely lead to a full-fledged revival of the monsoon.
The MJO wave periodically transits the East African coast and crosses the Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal included) before exiting to the South China Sea/ West Pacific. The wave carries clouds and precipitation, and presides over the onset of monsoons and formation of low-pressure areas.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook for July 16 and 17 are instructive. It forecast heavy- to very-heavy rainfall likely over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka and heavy rainfall at isolated places Kerala and July 16.
Strong winds forecast
Strong winds reaching the speed of 40-50 km/hr are likely over the East-Central and South-East Arabian Sea along and off the Maharashtra-Karnataka-Kerala coasts and the Lakshadweep area. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea over these areas.
As for July, the forecast reads heavy- to very-heavy rainfall over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Strong winds speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr are likely over East-Central Arabian Sea (around Lakshadweep). Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea over here.
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