Rainfall for the country as a whole so far during this season (as on Tuesday) is 11 per cent, with east and north-east India being the only geographical region to post a deficit (-14 per cent). As for other peer regions, north-west India entered into the positive territory (+1 per cent) on Tuesday while the South Peninsula (+30 per cent) and central India (+27 per cent) maintained their surplus into the last week of July, the second rainiest monsoon month.

Uttar Pradesh in deficit

But within north-west India, the meteorological subdivision of east Uttar Pradesh (-55 per cent) has posted the highest deficit, while west Uttar Pradesh (-49 per cent) followed not too far behind, statistics from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Over east and north-east India, Jharkhand (-50 per cent), Bihar, and the plains of West Bengal (-45 per cent each) represented the driest areas. Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura have run up a shortfall of 23 per cent, while Kerala in the Southern Peninsula has fallen back into a deficit (-22 per cent).

Emerging wet spell

But these areas are expected to receive a wet spell in the next few days as the monsoon trough over central India shifts northwards from Wednesday. In the South, the Bay of Bengal has tossed up a friendly cyclonic circulation (though not likely deepening as a low-pressure area as expected earlier). It is expected to stay active and guide the south-westerly flows into a south-easterly track along the Tamil Nadu coast.

Heavy clouds present

Satellite pictures on Tuesday evening showed heavy clouds over the South Peninsula and separated over the eastern and western parts of Peninsular India. The heaviest of them hung over Tirunelveli, Kumily, Coimbatore and Kozhikode on both sides of the Western Ghats in Tamil Nadu and Kerala; Hyderabad, Khammam, Warangal, Manuguru, Ramagundam, Bijapur, Jaddalpur and Rayagada (in Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Odisha); Rewa (Madhya Pradesh); Allahabad, Shahganj and Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh); and Barmer and Jaisalmer (West Rajasthan).

Widespread rain forecast

The IMD has predicted widespread light to moderate rain, thunderstorms and lightning over Gujarat, Konkan, Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, coastal Karnataka and Telangana for twodays. It will be scattered to fairly widespread over Odisha, Jharkhand, West Madhya Pradesh, the Ghats of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. Isolated heavy falls are likely over Jharkhand on Thursday and Friday; Telangana on Wednesday; South Interior Karnataka for three days from Wednesday; and over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until Friday.

Rain for North-West, East

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning are likely over Jammu & Kashmir on Thursday and Friday and over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until Saturday. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand from Thursday to Saturday.

May scale up over UP

It will be scattered to fairly widespread to moderate with isolated heavy falls over Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh from Wednesday until Saturday; over Uttar Pradesh from Thursday to Saturday before the rainfall picks up further. Fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura until Saturday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh on Thursday and Friday.