Comments
The country’s rice output that touched a record high of 104.3 million tonnes (mt) last year could see a marginal dip this season ending June. This is on account of a shortfall in kharif acreage, as scanty rains during the early phase of monsoon hit plantings in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
However, crop prospects have improved with the monsoon’s revival in August. The showers are seen aiding the standing crop that is in grain formation stage. Besides, they also led to expansion of acreage. Transplantation of paddy is still on in key eastern rice-growing States of Bihar, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal.
Crop size
Various estimates peg the crop size in the range of 98 to 102 mt. The rice trade estimates the crop to be around 100 mt, while the Food Ministry expects it to be at last year’s level.
The recent pick-up in monsoon prompted the United States Department of Agriculture to raise its estimates to 98 mt from its earlier forecast of 94 mt in August. The Food and Agriculture Organisation expects the rice crop to be around 99 mt, while the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy has pegged it at around 102 mt.
The rain deficit, which stood at 29 per cent as of end-June, stands reduced to around 7 per cent as of mid-September. This sharp recovery could help boost rice yields but may not reverse the damage.
So far, the total rice acreage is down by 5 per cent at 361.64 lakh hectares, which may keep the output lower than last year. Kharif is the main season for rice crop, which is typically sown in June-July and harvested in November-December. About 84 per cent of the country’s rice is grown during this season.
South situation
“The crop condition is almost normal except in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, where drought has hit planting,” said M.S. Diwakar, Director of the Patna-based Directorate of Rice Development. In Andhra, where acreage is down by about 4 lakh hectares, farmers have switched over to crops such as cotton, pulses and maize.
Diwakar expects the shortage of water availability in the Cauvery basin could also result in lower acreage in Tamil Nadu, where rice area has declined by 1.6 lakh hectares to 2.28 lakh hectares over corresponding previous year.
The acreage decline in these States is partially made up by higher planting in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Price, stocks
Vijay Setia, former President of All-India Rice Exporters Association, expects rice output at 100 mt. The improving quality in inputs, such as seeds and planting technology, would help boost the yields, he added.
However, the marginal dip in output is unlikely to be a cause of worry as the stockpile with the Government is about five times the prescribed buffer norms. As a result of a huge surplus, the rice prices are expected to rule steady, says Setia.
As on September 6, rice stocks in the Central Pool stood at 25.59 mt, much higher than the stipulated buffer of 5.2 mt as of October 1.
Setia estimates India’s consumption at 94-95 mt and with a projected output of 100 mt coupled with surplus Government stocks, “the availability of rice would be comfortable”.
Meanwhile, paddy arrivals have started in Karnal, the key market in Haryana. The arrival of non-basmati paddy is likely to be in full swing by the end of this month, said Sewa Singh Arya, a rice trader and President of Bharatiya Kisan Union in Haryana.
“The arrivals are not regular, as the crop is not fully matured in all parts. Farmers who have harvested their crop are coming in the grain market, as they don’t want to take chances with the matured crop. Paddy arrivals of aromatic varieties may start by the end of October,” Arya added.
M.P. Jindal, President of AIREA, said farmers were likely to get better prices than last year, as rice prices in the international market have increased and production is low this year.
Exports to continue
The sufficient stocks should prompt the Government to keep rice exports open this year. India, which re-opened non-basmati rice exports since September 2011, shipped 5.64 mt till mid-July. Another 1.1 mt is registered for exports through the land custom stations. Including basmati shipments, India has emerged as the largest exporter of rice for the year-ended March 2012 and is expected to remain a key player this year.
Vishwanath.kulkarni@thehindu.co.in
(With inputs from Our Karnal Correspondent)
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.