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The Arabian Sea cyclone Nisarga intensified into a severe cyclone early this morning and lay centred at 8.30 am about 130 km South-South-West of Alibaug; 170 km South-South-West of Mumbai; and 400 km South-South-West of Surat.
It is expected to cross the North Maharashtra coast just to the South of Alibag this afternoon as a severe cyclone packing winds speeds of 100-110 km/hr gusting 120 km/hr. After crossing, it may plough into Madhya and South-East Uttar Pradesh before heading into the foothills of the Himalayas and into Nepal.
Track into West Madhya Pradesh
No sooner would have the Nisarga remnant faded out than the North-East Bay of Bengal readies to host the next circulation which, as per initial projections by the IMD, could become a depression and orient itself perfectly towards the monsoon sweet spot of Head Bay for perfect launch into East India. This is in stark contrast to predecessor super cyclone Amphan that strayed after pulverising West Bengal.
This likely depression may move into West Uttar Pradesh per forecasts valid until June 13, driving the monsoon from the Bay into the country’s farming heartland land, the most ideal situation ensuring rain coverage. The Arabia Sea and Bay of Bengal arms of the monsoon will have been well established then.
Nisarga develops ‘eye’
However, the Arabian Sea may fall into a brief lull post-severe cyclone Nisarga. According to the IMD, the severe cyclone developed an ‘eye’ at its centre earlier this morning with a diameter of 65 km. It indicated strengthening of the storm intensify as well as beefing up of wind speeds from 85-95 km/hr gusting to 100 km/hr to 90-100 km/hr gusting to 110 km/hr.
Gale-force winds clocking 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr prevailed over the East-Central Arabian Sea this morning, which would later extend to the Raigad, Mumbai and adjoining Thane coasts; and 85-95 km/hr gusting to 105 km/hr along and off Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Palghar and the rest of Thane.
High winds, storm surge
Wind speeds expected by noon in the neighbourhood are: 60-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr along and off Valsad and Navsari, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli; 60-70 km/hr gusting to 80 km/hr along and off Surat and Bharuch; and 50-60 km/hr gusting to 70 km/hr over rest of the South Gujarat, Karnataka and Goa.
The sea condition will be (i) high to very high (wave heights of 30-40 ft) along and off Maharashtra and Goa coasts till this evening; and (ii) very rough to high (20-30 ft) along and off South Gujarat coast. Storm surge of 3-7 ft above astronomical tide may inundate low-lying areas of Mumbai, Thane and Raigad and of 1-3 ft at Ratnagiri. Fishermen along and off Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra-South Gujarat are advised to stay back home until tomorrow.
Heavy to very heavy rain
Heavy to very heavy falls are forecast at a few places and extremely heavy falls (20 cm or above) at isolated places Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigad and North Madhya Maharashtra until tomorrow. Heavy to very heavy falls are likely at isolated places over Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Goa, Valsad, Navsari, Dang, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Surat during this period. Heavy falls may lash parts of West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.
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