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The second low-pressure area during July and the third of this monsoon season forming over the Bay of Bengal during the next day or two will carry the momentum of the rainy season into the last week of July, according to leading private forecaster Skymet Weather.
The trend for deficient rain for the country as a whole, which seem to have reversed due to active monsoon conditions over North and Central India from a high of eight per cent to six per cent as on Tuesday, can be expected to settle around five per cent, if not lower, Skymet Weather said.
Emerging buzz in Bay
Light and variable winds over the North Bay of Bengal are indicative of the emerging buzz in the region which will culminate in the formation of the low-pressure area. A precursor a cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the Head Baby of Bengal anytime soon and consolidate in the following two days.
This circulation will descend to the lower levels of the atmosphere to set up the ‘low’ by Thursday (a day later, according to India Meteorological Department). This weather system is likely to meander over the Bay waters and adjoining coastal West Bengal and Odisha for at least the subsequent three days.
The prolonged stay over the waters may allow the system to intensify into a depression by July 26, Skymet Weather said. The low-pressure-turned depression is seen patrolling the eastern states of West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand for almost a week from Thursday, producing copious rain.
Heavy rain, floods likely
From Tuesday next, the first potential monsoon depression of the season will move north-west along the seasonal land-based trough and spread the monsoon current over large parts of East, Central and North India bringing heavy to very heavy rainfall and likely flooding conditions to the area.
The trough and the low-pressure area will act in tandem to result active monsoon conditions over West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and East Rajasthan.
Skymet Weather said that the peripherals of the system will drag rains to Maharashtra and Telangana too during this period. Joining the trough-low-pressure duo on July 26 (Monday) will be a western disturbance, which will bring Punjab and Haryana under the rain belt for remaining days of July.
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