Skymet, too, forecasts a normal monsoon

Skymet has become the country’s second private forecaster to come up with a normal monsoon forecast for the year.

In March, Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS) had said that the 2018 South-West monsoon, from June to September, would end up largely on the ‘positive side of normal’ (normal to above-normal).

India Meteorological Department, the country’s official weather forecaster, is expected to come out with its much-awaited long-range forecast for the monsoon next week.

Meanwhile, Skymet expects the monsoon to be at 100 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period.

There is a 75 per cent probability for normal to above-normal rainfall, while chances of drought conditions occurring this year are being ruled out entirely.

The bad news

In terms of geographical risk, it expects that peninsular India and most of North-East India is likely to be at higher risk of being rain deficient throughout the season (June-July-August-September).

As with WRMS, Skymet sees a ‘promising picture’ of good countrywide rainfall distribution in the onset month of June and the withdrawal month of September.

July and August, normally the rainiest, may see comparatively lesser rainfall. August would be a shade poorer than July, Skymet forecast said.

East India, especially Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and West Bengal, are most likely to see normal monsoon rains throughout the season.

Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, said that a devolving La Nina and gradual warming of the Pacific have combined to rule out the possibility of excess rains.

The overall signal from the Equatorial Tropical Pacific and ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the country’s backyard is unlikely to have any adverse impact on the monsoon either. Thus, monsoon 2018 is likely to be normal.

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