South Tamil Nadu recorded most of the heavy rain during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning, as helpful meteorological features aligned in the neighbourhood seas.

Chief among them is a combination of cyclonic circulation backed up by a trough (of lower pressure) over the Maldives-Lakshadweep region, which is drawing a steady stream of monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal.

The entire South Bay, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Lakshadweep are under persistent cloud cover, with the India Met Department (IMD) expecting a low-pressure area over the central parts of South Bay around Tuesday.

It is expected to move in a west-north-west direction and cross Sri Lanka and the Comorin (just to the South of the tip of Peninsular India) during Tuesday to Thursday, bringing a wave of rain into the southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Some intensification of the system is possible during this phase since the IMD has forecast squally weather with wind speeds reaching 30-40 km/hr gusting to 50 km/hr, which are close to that of a depression.

The South-West Bay and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean (on Tuesday and Wednesday) and the Comorin, Gulf of Mannar, and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean (Wednesday and Thursday) are likely to be affected in this manner.

Sea conditions will be ‘rough’ to ‘very rough’ (waves rising to a height of 8-20 ft) over these areas and fishermen are advised not to venture out. Those who are in deep seas have been advised to return to coast by Tuesday.

Meanwhile, main stations recording heavy to very heavy rain in Tamil Nadu until Sunday morning (in cm) are Papanasam: 15; Manimutharu and Coonoor: 6 each; Tirumangalam and Madurai Airport: 5 each.

The IMD, as also a few global models, has indicated the formation of a follow-up ‘low’ over the South-East Bay around Friday and making its way towards the Tamil Nadu coast.

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