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Thunderstorms seem to have significantly calmed down over Tamil Nadu overnight into this (Tuesday) morning with both India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicating that residual activity, if any, would be confined to Kerala into the rest of this week.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction too agreed but expected the southern parts of the Bay of Bengal to get restive back again during the first week of March likely buffeting Sri Lanka with a fresh wave of rainfall which may get amplified to cover the southern parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu as well.
Likely outlook for March
Probabilistic multi-model ensemble forecasts for March using dynamical models from 12 Global Producing Centres (GPC) of the World Meteorological Organisation have favoured slightly above normal rainfall for Sri Lanka and adjoining southern parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu extending along the coasts as well.
Out of the 12 GPC forecasts, seven GPC models indicate above normal rainfall while there is no clear signal from the rest five models for the month of March. Accordingly, it can be expected near or slightly above normal rainfalls over both Sri Lanka and adjoining Kerala and Tamil Nadu during March.
La Nina may extend stay into summer
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the US Climate Prediction Centre had expected La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific (which is thought to have engineered the normal to above normal rainfall regime over South India and Sri Lanka) to continue through March (95 per cent chance) and into March-May (65 per cent chance).
Most models expected La Nina to peak in January or February to moderate to strong levels with a likely return to ‘neutral’ conditions during April to June (50 per cent chance) by the time the 2021 South-West monsoon sets in over Sri Lanka, followed by the adjoining South-West coast of India (Kerala).
Fresh rain, snow over Himalayas
Meanwhile, the Himalayan hills of North-West India including Uttarakhand are slipping under the grip of what likely appears to be a week-long rainfall/snowfall session thanks to western disturbances crossing in from the international border. The IMD located the latest one over South-East Iran on Tuesday morning.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/snowfall is forecast over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh during the next five days; isolated to scattered rainfall/snowfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh for today and tomorrow (Tuesday and Wednesday) and fairly widespread for subsequent three days, the IMD said.
Rain, snow, hail for Uttarakhand
Isolated to scattered rainfall/snowfall is likely over Uttarakhand during next five days. Isolated thunderstorms/lighting is likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next five days.
Isolated hailstorm is forecast for Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh on Wednesday and Thursday, and over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand from Thursday to Saturday. Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh from Thursday to Saturday and over Himachal Pradesh on Friday and Saturday.
(E.o.m.)
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