Turmeric continues to rule firm over fears of crop loss

Turmeric prices in India continue to rule firm across markets on fears that the new crop could be less than last year’s output due to the heavy rains from October to November, traders have said.

“Traders in the Nizamabad region of Telangana say 40 per cent of the new crop has been damaged due to rains. But the area under the crop has increased in other areas such as Nanded in Maharashtra. Overall, the crop could be 15-20 per cent lower than last year,” said Sunil Patil, a supplier from Sangli in Maharashtra. 

It’s all hearsay

“Different figures are being given out on the damage to crops in the Nizamabad region. Some say 30 per cent, some 20 per cent and some 15 per cent. Most of this is hearsay. We will know the exact damage once arrivals of the new crop begin,” said RKV Ravishankar, Erode Turmeric Merchants Association President.

“At least 30 per cent of the turmeric crop in the Nizamabad region has been damaged due to unseasonal rains. The fields got waterlogged,” said Poonam Chand Gupta, a trader from Nizamabad. 

“The crop is normal in Tamil Nadu, like last year. Probably, production could be 10-15 per cent in the State,” said Ravishankar. 

New arrivals begin

According to the third advance estimate of horticulture crops released by the Ministry of Agriculture, turmeric production last season (July 2020 to June 2021) was lower at 10.64 lakh tonnes (lt), compared with 11.02 lt the previous season.

On Thursday, new turmeric crop arrived at the Sangli agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yard in Maharashtra and the fair average quality fetched ₹10,600 a quintal, while the premium quality was offered at ₹12,500 a quintal. 

“You should wait for a couple of days to know the clear trend of prices of the new crop. When the new crop arrives, many buy for sentimental value and to conduct poojas. For example, the new crop was quoted at ₹8,300 a quintal last week, but, a couple of days later, better quality turmeric was available at ₹7,900,” Ravishankar said. 

Price trend

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), turmeric for delivery in April on Thursday was quoted at ₹9,624 a quintal, up from ₹9,616 on Wednesday. However, the futures are down from last week, when they touched a high of ₹10,312. 

Nizamabad spot prices quoted by NCDEX was ₹8,875 on Wednesday, compared with ₹8,892 on January 24. At Erode APMC, the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹7,318, compared with ₹7,388 on January 24. 

Prices are higher compared with last year, when, for example, they ruled between ₹5,600 and ₹6,350 during the same period. 

“The old finger variety crop is sold at ₹9,200 in Nizamabad and the bold ones at ₹8,200. Over here, the new crop is ruling at ₹8,000-₹9,000,” said Gupta. 

“Over the next few months, turmeric will likely range between ₹9,500 and ₹11,500 in Maharashtra. Though demand is slow, it is likely to be good for the new crop,” said Patil. 

Current trend may prolong

Prices are likely to rule around these levels at least until April, after which the trend will depend on domestic and export demand, while they may drop during the rains from June to July, he said. 

“Demand should have started from February 1, but looks like it will begin in another 10 days’ time and peak in March. Export demand is yet to come in,” said Ravishankar. 

“Export demand is slow,” said Gupta. 

Patil said there could be some shortage of turmeric towards the year-end and prices could then surge. 

For now, traders are keeping their fingers crossed on the arrivals as it will give them a clear signal on the new crop. 

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