Monsoon watch. Weak monsoon sees sharp fall in rainfall surplus

Rainfall remains subdued over North-West and Central India during the next five days and over the western parts of Peninsular India (including the West Coast) from Monday with India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting isolated/scattered thunderstorms, lightning and rain during this period.

This signals an emerging classical ‘break monsoon’ when the monsoon shuts itself out over large parts of the country and ‘pauses for a breath’ at the end of some frenetic activity following onset over Kerala. This is also a phase when rains are confined to East, North-East India and parts of the East Coast.

Big drain-out in surplus

Meanwhile, the rainfall surplus for the country as a whole has eroded from above 40 per cent a few days ago to 16 per cent as on Monday despite the familiar spike in rainfall activity over the eastern parts. This has also set up an above normal flood situation in a few rivers in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Assam.

The IMD said in its bulletin on Monday that 24 hours ending in the morning witnessed heavy to very heavy with extremely heavy falls over parts of Uttarakhand, Assam and Meghalaya while it was heavy to very heavy at isolated places in Arunachal Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, Konkan and Goa.

Among the main stations recording heavy rainfall (above nine cm) are Cherrapunji-32; Haldwani-21, Birpur-20; Pasighat17; Alipurduar-14; Talasari and Boath-12 each; Girnadam and Mallial-11 each; Masulipatnam, Nandavaram, Elagaid, Nanganur, Kawardha and Ambad-nine each.

Rains to escalate over East

Heavy rain lashed parts of East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during this period.

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-Eastern states during the next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Arunachal Pradesh until Thursday, and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura until Wednesday.

Isolated extremely falls may break out over Assam and Meghalaya until Wednesday and over the hills and Sikkim from Wednesday to Friday. Later, the rainfall may spread out over the Himalayan foothills.

Retreat of monsoon trough

This will bring heavy to very heavy rain over North Bihar, North Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand on the first two days of July, normally the rainiest of the four monsoon months, with the weakened monsoon trough over North-West India retreating fully to the foothills setting up the ‘break monsoon’ phase.

The IMD has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand and the Himalayan foothills of East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar on Thursday and Friday (July 1 and 2). Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast also over the plains of West Bengal and Bihar on both these days.

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