Wednesday’s low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Andaman Sea now has intensified a round to become ‘well-marked’ over the same region this (Thursday) morning, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update.

The well-marked ‘low’ is likely to move West-North-West across the waters and concentrate into a depression over the South-East Bay later today (Thursday) and further intensify into a cyclone over the Central Bay of Bengal by tomorrow (Friday).

Shift in onward track

From this point, the projected cyclone is expected to make a slight change in the track for onward movement to the North-West (as against West-North-West), intensify further into a powerful cyclone and approach the North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts by Saturday morning.

This will bring heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands today (Thursday); heavy to very heavy rainfall over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Coastal Odisha from tomorrow (Friday) to Sunday; and over the plains of West Bengal from Saturday to Monday in line with the track of the cyclone. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Coastal Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Saturday.

Warning to fishermen

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Andaman Sea today (Thursday); into South-East and adjoining East-Central Bay on both Thursday and Friday; over West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay and along and off the North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts from Friday to Sunday; and along & off the Odisha-West Bengal coasts from Friday to Monday.

Meanwhile, to the other side of the Peninsula, a cyclonic circulation lies over East-Central Arabian Sea persists but outlook for a low-pressure area developing here appears to have been withdrawn. A trough runs from South-East Arabian Sea to Kutch across this cyclonic circulation. A itinerant western disturbance lies as a trough roughly along Iran-Iraq and is on way to Afghanistan, Pakistan and North India.

Inbound western disturbance

Westerly winds associated with the western disturbance will interact with easterlies from the Bay and trigger Isolated to scattered rainfall over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh today (Thursday). Isolated thunderstorms/lightning are likely over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The IMD expects another western disturbance to chug in from across the border into North-West India from the night of Saturday. An extended outlook for December 7-9 said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over parts of Peninsular India (not South Peninsula) and North-East India. Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over parts of East India, hills of North-West India and the Islands.

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