Indian wheat crop faces threat of heat stress but early sowing may help to some extent

Three weeks before grain filling starts in the wheat in most parts of northern India, private weather forecaster Skymet has said the absence of rains is reducing the atmospheric moisture levels and building up the heat stress which is detrimental for the winter-grown cereal.

But early sowing of the wheat crop in many parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, besides other regions such as Rajasthan could help to some extent. Experts say as long as the day temperature does not exceed 30 degrees and remains within 15 degree during night there is no cause of concern for wheat, even in March.

“Rains are unlikely over most parts of northern and eastern India over the next two weeks or even longer. Rising heat potential is construed as detrimental for all the ‘Rabi’ crops in general and wheat in particular. Production estimates for the season 2022-23 may take a harsh beating, if not repeat of last year,” Skymet said in a bulletin.

Too early for a call

“It is too early to make any assumption on the wheat crop. States such as Gujarat have had an extended winter and it will help,” said Pramod Kumar, President, Roller Flour Mills Federation of India.

Gyanendra Singh, Director of Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR), said there is no cause for concern for wheat now as the temperature in most parts of the country has not exceeded the threshold level. The Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that above-normal maximum temperatures are very likely in most parts of east and north-east India, east central India and some parts of north-west and west central India in February.

IMD said minimum temperatures are most likely to be normal to below normal over most parts of the country except the north-east and adjoining east India, northern parts of the west coast and some parts of northwest India, where it is most likely to be above normal. Its March forecast will be issued by the end of this month.

Arrivals begin

A couple of traders said even if the heat increases, the entire wheat crop may not be affected as there was early sowing In Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. “The night temperature is still around 15 degrees Celsius. There should be no concern as long as the night temperature does not increase,” a trader, speaking on condition of anonymity, seconded Singh’s views.

Sunil Mukhati, a farmer from Dewas in Madhya Pradesh said wheat arrivals have begun in small lots but the current dry period could become a concern if the tempeature rises since it could affect the yield.

Pointing out that north India remained largely rain deficit in December 2022 and the seasonal shortfall was carried forward in January as well, Skymet said the initial days of this month have witnessed dry weather conditions over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. IMD said there was 13 per cent deficient rainfall overall in the country in January.

“Next month will be crucial as grain filling will start and even for one or two weeks the temperature rises beyond certain points it could impact wheat yield,” said K K Singh, former head of IMD’s agromet division.

“Very assuring” rise in area

In December, the Agriculture Ministry had said the increase in the sowing area under wheat was “very assuring”. “A record area coverage and production of wheat is expected this year,” it had said. However, there has been no mention on how the crop is developing thereafter.

The government has targeted a record 112 million tonnes (mt) production of wheat this crop year (July-June). The output of the winter-grown cereal dropped to 106.84 mt in 2021-22 from 109.59 mt in 2020-21 due to an unusual heatwave sweeping across the country in March lowering yield. Traders and experts, however, estimate the production even lower, which, they claim, is reflected in its open market prices soaring.

According to Skymet, various weather agencies have predicted sharp rise in the mercury levels in the coming days, more so, during late February and March. Excess heat around this time will adversely impact the grain size and in turn overall production, it said.

The area under wheat in the current season is up by 0.4 per cent at 343.23 lakh hectares (lh) from a year ago with States such as Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh among others registering an increase, while Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab saw a decline.

(With inputs from Subramani Ra Mancombu, Chennai)

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