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Aided by a strong show on both tax and non-tax revenues, the Centre’s fiscal deficit for the first ten months came in at ₹9.37 lakh crore, which is 58.9 per cent of the revised estimate fiscal deficit projection of ₹15.91 lakh crore for 2021-22.
At the same stage last fiscal, the Centre’s fiscal deficit as a percentage of revised estimate was 66.8 per cent, the latest data from Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed.
In April-December 2021, the Centre’s fiscal deficit stood at ₹7.59 lakh crore, which was 50.4 per cent of the budgeted fiscal deficit of ₹ 15.06 lakh crore.
Stable poisiton
Going by the latest data, indications are that the current fiscal’s overall fiscal deficit may only see a modest overshoot to the revised estimate, say economists. This is possible, if the government could complete the mega LIC initial public offering this fiscal mopping up about ₹65,000 crore in capital receipts for the Central exchequer.
Commenting on the latest fiscal deficit print, Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, said that the 10 months fiscal position appears to be very stable and it does look like that the budgetary revised estimates would be met. The total expenditure so far at 74.5 per cent is almost the same as last year when it was 73 per cent.
Both tax and non-tax revenue are higher in terms of proportion of revised budget for FY22 this year compared with last year, he said. “The only worry would be disinvestment which is much lower than the target. But the government has indicated that it will meet the target for LIC and hence the distance should get covered once this is accomplished. There is still Rs 1.6 lakh crore of capex that has to be incurred in the remaining two months”, Sabnavis added.
Till January this fiscal, the Centre’s capital expenditure stood at ₹4.42 lakh crore, which is 73.4 per cent of the revised estimate of ₹6.02 lakh crore.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA said that the Centre’s revenue spending grew by a sharp 30 per cent in the month of January 2022, whereas capital spending was contained at Rs. 0.5 lakh crore, 6 per cent lower than January 2021. “With ₹ 1.6 lakh crore left to be spent in Feb-March 2022, it appears unlikely that the capex target of ₹ 6.0 lakh crore included in the FY2022 RE will be met”, she said.
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