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The Nomura India Business Resumption Index eased to 100.6 for the week ending September 19 from 101.4 the prior week.
Although the index is still above its pre-pandemic level, mobility indicators were mixed. The Google retail and recreation mobility index rose by 1.6pp and the Apple driving index by 1.9pp, but the Google workplace index fell by 1.9pp.
Power demand remains weak, contracting by 2.6 per cent week-on-week, almost the same as last week. The labour participation rate also fell to 39.8 per cent from 40.9 per cent in the previous week.
Other high frequency data have also been mixed. GST e-way bills as of mid-September (at 35.4 million) were lower than in mid-August (47.3 million) and mid-July (63.8 million), though average daily railway freight revenue inched up to 25.5 million in mid-September from 24.3million in mid-August.
“The third wave of Covid-19 remains at bay so far, while the pace of vaccination has picked up to an average 8 million doses/day so far this month, up from 5.4 million in August (~15 per cent of the population is fully vaccinated). Supply-side bottlenecks may also weigh on near-term manufacturing growth, but services should pickup. We expect GDP growth to rebound to 5 per cent q-o-q, in Q3 (July-September; 7.3 per cent y-o-y from 20.1 per cent in Q2) and FY22 GDP growth to average 9.2 per cent y-o-y,” Nomura said.
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