Coronavirus impact to peak in April-May, says Morgan Stanley

The impact on the global economy from coronavirus could peaks in April-May, and growth will recover from third quarter of 2020, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. “We expect that the effects from disruption will fade and global growth will recover from 3Q20, rising to an average of 3.1 per cent in 2H20,” Morgan Stanley said in a research report.

However, the global GDP growth will decelerate to 2.3 per cent in 1H20 – the weakest since the global financial crisis. “The outbreak has already prompted a policy response, and we expect more easing in the coming months. The global monetary easing cycle will be extended as the Fed delivers 75 bp of cuts by 2Q20, while the ECB and BoJ temporarily increase asset purchases,” the report said.

“The majority of EM (emerging markets) central banks will also cut rates further, taking global monetary policy rates to a new all-time low. Fiscal policy will do the heavy lifting in Asia and Europe, where fiscal deficits will widen to levels not seen since 2011, led by a 200 bp expansion in China and 70bp in the euro area,” it added

The risks to watch for will be whether the outbreak is more widespread and lasts beyond April/May, and how much the disruption impacts corporate profitability and balance sheets