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Expressing hope of a rebound in economic activities, the NITI Aayog on Friday said that GDP growth is likely to be 7.5 per cent this fiscal.
“I expect growth to be around 7.5 per cent in the current year,” said NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Arvind Panagariya, adding that the economy was likely to hit the 8-per cent mark over the next two years, by the end of the term of the NDA government.
Sustained growth “The Modi government had inherited a rather fragile economy….(We will) probably enter another sustained growth trajectory of 8 per cent plus by the time government completes its term,” he said at a press conference to mark the three-year anniversary of the government.
His comments come soon after official data revealed that India’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016-17 slipped to a mere 6.1 per cent and was at a two-year low of 7.1 per cent for the last fiscal.
While stressing that the slower growth was due to various factors and not just demonetisation of high value currency, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had on Thursday said that growth of 7 per cent to 8 per cent is “reasonable”.
“We are pretty much out of woods as far as demonetisation is concerned... We should see a good turnaround in the first quarter of 2017-18,” Panagariya stressed.
In the face of criticism that the Centre’s policies promote “jobless growth”, he brushed aside the quarterly surveys by the Labour Bureau and said that they were done with a sample size of just three crore, against the total Indian workforce of 47 crore.
“The debate on jobs has happened in a vacuum…We don’t have the numbers,” he said, adding that the new high-level taskforce for timely and reliable data on employment was looking at various options and will soon come out with a report.
Panagariya chairs the taskforce that was set up by the Prime Minister’s Office recently.
Labour force survey While work on the periodic labour force survey that will provide annual and quarterly data on employment is already on, Panagariya said the taskforce is also looking at options such as an establishment survey and administrative data from agencies like the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation, Employees’ States Insurance Corporation and National Pension System.
Strategic disinvestment On the issue of strategic disinvestment, the NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman expressed disappointment that not even one such transaction has gone through till now.
“The process has moved slower than I expected. Strategic disinvestment will take off now,” he said, adding that the process of closure of sick public sector units will also continue.
He also announced that NITI Aayog will release the Vision and Strategy Document over the next three months.
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