Recent developments in India-Canada relationship could put some dent in Canadian investments in renewables in India, according to a report by Bernstein.

Canadian funds have been instrumental in funding renewable projects in India till now. CPPIB (Canada Pension Plan Investment Board) has 53 per cent ownership of ReNew Power which has 8.4 GW operating capacity and another 5.3 GW in pipeline. CDPQ (Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec) has 53 per cent stake in Azure Power and 21 per cent is held by OMERS (Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System). CDPQ also has Apraava Energy with 1.2 GW operating capacity where they own 50 per cent stake.

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Brookfield is another Canadian company looking to make inroads in this space - they have an existing portfolio of ~4 GW, another $1 billion they invested in Avaada and $361 million in CleanMax where they acquired 55 per cent stake and OTPP (Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan) holds 30 per cent in Mahindra Susten with an investment of $287 million, which has 1.3 GW operating and 0.4 GW pipeline. 

“We don’t see exits happening for existing investors, but there definitely could be slow-down in incremental investments in Indian renewable space from Canadian funds. The visa blockage if sustained could be a big factor; we have seen this in challenges for Chinese nationals to get visa even leading to project delays,” Bernstein said in a note.

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The brokerage firm said for ReNew this does not impact any existing projects or commissioning of pipeline projects but further investments by CPPIB is less likely or delayed till any further clarity emerges on these developments. “Reluctance could come from CPPIB or even from the Indian govt. to allow full control of one the largest renewable players,” Bernstein said..

For NTPC, it would increase the weight on NTPC’s shoulder even more to fund the renewable growth for India.

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“For Adani Green, while this event and recent funding news from TotalEnergies is a clear positive- they are not fully out of the woods yet with a large loan repayment due in 2025 of ₹225 Bn. This is reflected in their absence in renewable tenders,” the brokerage firm said.

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