Target: ₹8,800

CMP: ₹8,215.75

MCX is benefitting from current state of heightened commodity volatility, which is reflected in the volume growth seen in FY26TD. Adding the benefit of new product launches and increased participation, we upgrade earnings and multiple for MCX. Basis the current uptick in volumes, we upgrade our volume estimates for both futures and options.

We assume futures average daily trading volume (ADTV) to be ₹42,000/₹47,500 crore in FY26E/FY27E vs ₹40,600 crore in FY26–TD. We assume options’ notional ADTV to be ₹3.1/₹4.2 lakh crore in FY26/FY27 and premium ADTV to be ₹4,950 crore/₹6,550 crore in FY26E/FY27E vs. notional/premium ADTV of ₹2.6 lakh crore/₹4,260 crore in FY26–TD. We factor about 12 per cent CAGR for nonvolume-based cost estimates between FY25-27E.

We maintain Add on MCX basis 45x (earlier 40x) FY27E adjusted EPS of ₹190.9 (earlier ₹146.6) (ex-income from investment net of taxes) while adding free cash (Investments ex of Margin money, SGF and Regulatory capital) of ₹211/share. Our target price is revised to ₹8,800. Our positive stance on MCX is based on strong uptick in volumes since the start of FY26, possible uptick in volumes arising from newer products such as silver monthly options, crude weekly options and electricity futures and the rise in commodity volatility against current backdrop of global geopolitical tensions.

Published on June 24, 2025