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The slow progress of the monsoon and unattractive prices last year may dampen the spirit of soybean growers this kharif season. Triggered by these factors, farmers are feared to turn to alternative crops, thereby reducing soybean acreage, which may fall below last year's 110 lakh hectares.
The monsoon’s progress has been slow in the key soybean growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan and has already slowed the sowing progress of the oilseed, which is low in fat and cholesterol.
Most of last year, soybean prices hovered lower as compared to the previous year, mainly on account of bumper production witnessed in Kharif 2016, at about 115 lakh tonnes, against 69 lakh tonnes in 2015.
The average spot price at the Ujjain market in November 2016 stood at ₹2,889 per quintal, down from₹3,623.66 per quintal in November 2015. For the month of June 2017, prices dropped further to ₹2,805 per quintal, which was ₹3,734 a quintal a year ago.
“It is difficult to estimate the sowing number at present. But things don’t look very rosy for soybean. The onset of monsoon has not been very regular and prices too were lower last year. It seems difficult to maintain last year’s sowing number,” said Davish Jain, Chairman, Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA).
According to Jain, lower prices and an irregular monsoon may dampen farmers' sentiment for soybean cultivation and may lead them to take up sowing of other crops such as cotton, maize and urad, as well as other pulses.
The Central Government’s data on kharif sowing puts oilseeds sowing at 25.9 lakh hectares as on June 30, 2017, against 28.35 lakh hectares at the same time last year.
Meanwhile, the monsoon forecast for the next five days from July 6 doesn’t show any major monsoon activity in the soybean growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat. As per the weather forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), most parts of Rajasthan will have dry weather for the next five days till July 10, while parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh will see isolated rains.
In Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidarbha and Central Maharashtra will witness scattered rainfall during the next five days.
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