The India Met Department (IMD) has confirmed that the monsoon will revive gradually from the South Peninsula during the week beginning June 22.

For all practical purposes, this will set up monsoon onset conditions for a second time, and progress along the original it treaded during the last two weeks.

Second wave

It might start from South Peninsula, the Met said in its extended forecast on Friday. During this period, normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over Lakshadweep, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

But the upper West Coast may receive heavy to very heavy rain in advance, with heavy to very heavy showers from Saturday in Karnataka and later Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai.

A similar outlook is also valid for the rest of the southern Peninsula and parts of Central India, including including Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Interior Maharashtra and South Madhya Pradesh. parts of East India and North-West India including Odisha, Assam, Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir which may also witness normal to above normal rainfall during this period.

But rains would be below normal over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, North Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

The Met, however, said that probability for genesis of a monsoon depression is low during the next two weeks. It, however, it did not seem to rule out a rudimentary low-pressure area.

The ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction has retained the outlook for a circulation developing off the Odisha coast between June 25 to 29.

It is forecast to follow a leisurely but laggard movement to Central India until West Madhya Pradesh even as thunderstorms rule the roost over East and North-West India. As the IMD indicated, there is no possibility of a monsoon depression growing out of this, but it is expected that it would bring rains to Madhya Pradesh at least 10 days behind schedule.

Meanwhile, the surplus recorded rainfall for the country as a whole from June 1 till date on Friday has been reduced to 12 per cent, a fall by seven per cent from only two days ago. This reflected the weak phase of the monsoon with rains drying up over most of the South Peninsula and the West Coast where most of the surplus was generated.

During the ongoing week (June 13 to 20), rainfall is likely to remain below normal over Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal, Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

Among other areas which might have received below normal rainfall but not covered by the monsoon yet are Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha.

Non-seasonal thunderstorms

Meanwhile, cyclonic circulations and troughs reared their heads over the land where the monsoon would be actually in play during this time of the year. The most prominent runs from North-West Bihar all the way down to the South-South-West to link with a circulation over the sea off the Karnataka coast. It cuts through Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka, opening up a potential avenue for non-seasonal thunderstorms to line up.

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