Global benchmark Brent rose toward $95 a barrel, extending a powerful rally driven by supply curbs from OPEC+ leaders.
The gains in recent sessions have been accompanied by a jump in key timespreads that suggest the market is undersupplied, while bullish call options are also getting more expensive. In the physical market, refined products like diesel are increasingly flashing warning signs, with the world’s refineries proving powerless to make enough of the industrial fuel. Prices have far outstripped those for crude.
Meanwhile, at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud said that energy markets need regulating and that actions by the OPEC+ alliance are targeting volatility, not prices.
Will oil hit $100? It already has in some marketsNigerian crude Qua Iboe surpassed $100 a barrel on Monday, Malaysian crude Tapis reached $101.30; Brent oil futures traded as high as $94.89
Oil is up about 10% this year thanks to OPEC+ curbs. US crude stockpiles have dropped, and speculators have boosted net-bullish wagers on Brent and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate to a combined 15-month high. The global demand outlook has brightened, too, with the US potentially avoiding recession just as refiners in China go all-out. But Prince Abdulaziz cautioned Monday that the outlook for Chinese demand remains uncertain.
Oil’s surge looks set to fan inflationary pressures around the globe just as central bankers try to determine whether to continue hiking interest rates. This will be an important week for monetary policy, with decisions due from the Fed and the Bank of England, among others.
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