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Motilal Oswal
Target: ₹2,480
CMP: ₹2,153.75
From our interaction with the management, we believe Ipca Laboratories (IPCA) has enough levers to outperform the market in Domestic Formulations (DF) and Branded Generics exports, with good visibility in the Institutional business and continued momentum in the API segment.
IPCA has witnessed sustained growth momentum in the Pain segment. It has posted market share gains, on account of the pandemic, in products wherein smaller companies have been unable to meet supply requirements. Moreover, higher prescriptions for established brands such as Zerodol have enhanced growth prospects for IPCA in this segment.
Led by an investment of ₹400 crore toward capacity enhancement as well as the ongoing backward integration, we believe IPCA’s API business (25 per cent of sales) would sustain the growth momentum over the next 3–5 years.
Adjusted for one-time business in FY21, we expect IPCA to deliver a 16 per cent earnings CAGR over FY21–23 on, a) better-than-industry growth in DF, b) recovery in the branded business, c) increased prospects in the UK business, d) increased business opportunity in the Institutional segment, and e) a capacity enhancement exercise in the API segment.
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