COP28 curtain raiser: What is cooking in COP28?

Every year, delegates from some 190-odd countries meet to discuss a critical problem facing mankind—global warming.  

Today, the 28^th such Conference of Parties (to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) began in Dubai today. On the table of the negotiators is an agenda that has more gravity than ever before, with geo-political tensions taking the world in a direction opposite to which it should head, if the target of “2 degrees” or ambition of “1.5 degrees” are to be met. (These numbers refer to the rise in global average temperatures over a benchmark average temperature that obtained in the pre-industrial era, roughly 1850-1900). 

• Also Read: COP28 climate summit puts spotlight on turning methane pledges into action

A recent Emissions Gap Report of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that the world is on a trajectory to hotter by 2.9 degrees by the end of century, which is catastrophic. 

Leading theme—Global Stocktake 

In 2015 Paris Agreement (at COP15), when everybody agreed to the target of 2 degrees and each country said what it would do on its part towards the common goal, it was agreed that all countries would sit together and evaluate the world’s progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions, building resilience to climate change impacts and securing finance for climate action.  

The first such ‘Global Stocktake’ is to happen at the COP28—for this reason this COP has earned the sobriquet, ‘Global Stocktake COP’. 

According to the World Resources Institute, “the first Global Stocktake marks the most extensive assessment of global action on climate change to date, distilling over 1,600 documents from diverse sources and drawing from consultations not only with scientists and governments but also cities, businesses, farmers, indigenous people, civil society and others.” 

Other issues 

Apart from Global Stocktake, some of the major issues that are expected to be discussed are—finance, loss and damage and phase down of fossil fuels. 

Under finance, both the two ways of financial flows from the haves to have-nots will be discussed.  

The first is the direct making available of moneys, through grants and (mostly) loans. The developed countries are likely to say that they are already doing their part. The recent OECD noted that the $100 b goal pledged in 2009, is likely to have been met in 2022. However, there is no public data to show this. Therefore, the developing countries are likely to disagree that adequate funds-flows have been made available and are expected to call for increased transparency.  

The G20 New Delhi Leaders Declaration has underlined the need for $5.8-5.9 trillion in the pre-2030 period for developing countries to meet net zero targets. 

• Also Read: Ahead of COP28, three UNEP reports paint a grim picture of climate reality

The second way of making finance available is through the ‘market mechanism’ -- or, carbon markets. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which deals with bilateral (6.2) and global carbon market (6.4), is said to be the most complex part of the Agreement.  

In COP28, the sticking points on carbon credits will be on “guidelines for authorising credits, ensuring transparent reporting on trading credits, how to prevent double counting, how to define removal and eligibility of avoidance and REDD+ forestry projects,” say Zero Carbon Analytics. 

The COP will also discuss how to bring money into the ‘loss and damage fund’ which was set up at the COP27, in Egypt, last year. 

Phasing down of fossil fuels is another contentious issue the COP28 will see. The Western world will ask countries like India to stop burning coal; the coal-burners will tell the Western world to first stop burning oil and gas.  

At the 6^th assembly of International Solar Alliance in Delhi in October, India’s Power Minister, R K Singh, told the international audience that he understood Europe’s need to burn oil and gas for energy, but in turn told Europe “don’t blame me” for burning coal. 

Renewable energy 

India has taken the lead to call for global tripling of renewable energy targets by 2030 at the G20 Leaders Summit. With more than 60 nations rallying behind this, along with support from the US, EU and UAE. 

This can be a COP28 victory if all 195 nations agree to it.  

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