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As the election campaign draws to a close, Kottayam finds itself amidst political and economic uncertainty, driven by a clash between the Kerala Congress factions and a crisis in the natural rubber sector.
This uncertainty is not merely a product of current events but rather a culmination of the intricate twists and turns that have defined the region’s political landscape since the last parliamentary election.
In 2019, Thomas Chazhikadan of Kerala Congress (M) won the election as a Congress-led UDF candidate, securing approximately 46.25 per cent of the votes, compared with 34.58 per cent for the LDF and 17.04 per cent for the NDA.
This time too he is contesting as Kerala Congress (M) candidate but supported by the rival faction of the ruling CPI(M)-led LDF. Though his party is in the opposite camp, he hopes to replicate his success in 2019 on the back of his popularity and hold on voters.
Shocked by the unexpected move of the Kerala Congress (M) faction to ally with LDF, the rival Kerala Congress (Joseph) faction supported by the UDF aims to exploit this loyalty switch and anti-incumbency sentiment along with disillusionment with the LDF government. It has nominated K Francis George, son of the former Kerala Congress leader, KM George, as its candidate.
The NDA’s delayed selection of Tushar Vellappally, president of the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena, has further intensified the electoral battleground. Although the arithmetic seems straightforward and potentially decisive, the NDA anticipates a closely contested battle this time, buoyed by the rollout of welfare measures for rubber growers by the central government.
Since 1951, the Congress or its allies have clinched victory around ten times in Kottayam, including the last three elections. However, the Left has also managed to disrupt this trend, out-polling the UDF on six occasions in what is often deemed a “conservative constituency.”
Kottayam’s elections have historically revolved around the crisis in the natural rubber sector as it is the largest producer of the commodity in the state. This time, the scenario appears altered with domestic prices mirroring the high prices in the international market. However, the issues are different – lower production due to the hot weather and unavailability of stocks with farmers. Nonetheless, the contesting factions have adhered to tradition, focusing their campaigns around it.
Concurrently, issues such as the Manipur violence, attacks on Christians in North India, and concerns regarding minority appeasement and the protection of Hindu faith have emerged as prominent topics in the political discourse.
In the constituency, with a dominant Christian population, the positions of the Catholic Church, the rift between Orthodox and Jacobite factions, and the stance of the Nair Service Society, an ardent supporter of the faithful, are poised to significantly influence the election’s outcome. Moreover, the sizeable presence of Knanaya Christians and SNDP Yogam members may further fragment the vote share among the leading contenders.
As the campaign hots up in the sweltering summer heat, the pressing question is whether the LDF can extend its winning streak to the Lok Sabha leveraging its growing grassroots support acquired since the previous local body polls.
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