The south-westerly monsoon flows over the Andaman Sea are seen weakening during the weekend and may not recover until next week (Monday to Thursday next), says the Thailand Meteorological Department.

The monsoon had made an onset over the South Andaman Sea and parts of adjoining South Bay of Bengal on Saturday last but failed to make any further progress over the last six days.

'Growing uncertainty'

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has since been saying that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to make further progress in the Bay 'during the next two to three days.'

On Thursday, it has reduced the three-day window required for the 'break-out' to two days, and merely repeated the outlook in Friday’s bulletin.

Experts equate the tendency among forecasters to advance the timeline of an anticipated meteorological event with growing confusion and uncertainty about the event.

Meanwhile, heavy to very heavy rain has occurred over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura over the last two to three days.

Conditions are now favourable for further advance of the monsoon into some more parts of South Bay, the North Andaman Sea and the Andaman Islands during next two days.

Rain for north-east

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, hills of Bengal, hills of Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh during this week (May 23 to 29).

Isolated heavy/very heavy falls is also likely to occur over above areas during the first half of the week, an outlook valid for the next two weeks said.

Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Kerala and South Interior Karnataka and isolated rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds over the rest South Peninsular India during most days of the week. Cumulatively, above normal rainfall has been forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Punjab, North-West Rajasthan and Interior Karnataka during the week.

However, below normal rainfall could likely be the outcome for the hills of North-West India, East India and Tamil Nadu during this period.

Below-normal rain

During the following week (May 30 to June 5), below normal to normal rainfall is forecast for most parts of the country outside Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and South Tamil Nadu where it is likely to be above normal.

Significantly, it doesn't mention anything about the prospects for the onset of the monsoon over mainland India along the Kerala coast during this period.

It may be recalled that the IMD has already predicted the onset date this year as June 6 as against the long-period average of June 1, whereas private forecaster Skymet Weather has picked June 4 as the date.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the United States (US) National Weather Service had in the meantime come out with a statement saying that the onset is unlikely to happen before June 4.

Emerging weather pattern over the seas is not exactly suitable for hosting the monsoon current, the US agency said, suggesting that June 6 may be the more realistic date for the onset over Kerala.

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