India’s scientific community and policymakers have a lot to learn from civil war-torn Yemen where computer-assisted prediction systems helped bring down cholera cases recently. Media reports show that Yemen’s healthcare agencies were able to reduce instances of cholera outbreak significantly — from 50,000 new cases in just one week last year to 2,500 this season — by using a UN-sponsored digital data analytics mechanism that helped aid workers to spot areas prone to cholera outbreak early on and prevent a calamity by providing the area with medical care and prevention tools.

The system, developed by the UK’s overseas aid department in association with the Met Office, predicts areas where cholera can occur four weeks before it happens. The prediction system anchors on computer data analytics, which scans rainfall forecast for Yemen and determine the amount of rain each area (at a 10 km radius) will receive. Typically, heavy rains fill sewers in these areas, forcing them to spill contaminated water that could immediately trigger an epidemic. The forecast was done blending rainfall data with factors such as population density, availability and access to clean water, seasonal temperature and other climatic factors.

Predicting an epidemic four weeks in advance is no mean feat by any measure. According to the World Health Organization’s ‘Ending Cholera — A Global Roadmap to 2030’, early detection and quick response is pivotal to contain the outbreak which kills several thousands every year across the globe, costing some $2 billion a year in healthcare costs and lost productivity. Non-profit WaterAid estimates India records over 675,000 cholera cases a year, denting social well-being and workforce productivity. Considering these factors, it makes sense for authorities to invest and develop data-powered, computer-aided systems in partnership with public and private scientific research institutions so that healthcare agencies could forestall outbreaks of cholera as well as other infectious diseases in the country.

India has the technological prowess to make this happen, but making healthcare institutes and other agencies to share data on diseases and collaborate on developing solutions is going to be a big ask, though. The Health Ministry must take the initiative to bring the scientists, digital data and computing experts to tie up with policymakers to work on such modern, progressive healthcare solutions.

Jinoy Jose PDeputy Editor

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