A saffron Holi in the North-East

With two States of the North-East going the way of the BJP and allies, and Meghalaya up for grabs with a fractured verdict, the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah slogan of “Congress-mukt Bharat” no longer sounds hyperbolic.

The BJP’s biggest triumph is in the tiny state of Trupura, a CPI(M)-led Left Front bastion for what seems like forever. It had ruled since 1978, except for 1988-1993, when it was ruled by a Congress-led government. Chief Minister Manik Sarkar had appeared invincible till the Modi-Shah bulldozer came along. It is creditable that the BJP, which was in alliance with the IPFT (Indigenous People’s Front of Trupura), which has been demanding a separate ‘Twipraland’, has got a majority on its own. This means that the call for separation will be buried for the next five years.

The problem areas

So what went wrong for Sarkar, widely seen as a clean chief minister? A couple of factors, the primary one being failure to create adequate employment opportunities for the youth. Then again, he failed to modernise and capitalise on the early IT opportunities in the State. This dissatisfaction was evident when I visited Agartala a few months ago.

Though a clean and green city, Agartala and the rest of the State have sadly failed to attract major investment, or develop modern infrastructure. The BJP’s clean sweep in the capital shows a clear anti-incumbency factor and the yearning for development and employment.

Another big factor that catapulted the BJP’s vote-share from a mere one point something per cent in 2013 to a staggering 47 per cent in the present election was surely a categorical promise by the party to give citizenship to Bengali-speaking Hindu migrants from Bangladesh, including those who came during the 1971 war, through amendment of the Citizenship Bill. While they form the majority of the State’s population, tribals form 28 per cent. The BJP-IPFT alliance’s clean sweep in all 20 reserved seats for tribals shows that they too have voted for change.

The Congress, on its part, has put up its worst-ever performance, getting no seats in either Nagaland or Tripura; in the latter it was the principal opposition party, with 10 seats. In Nagaland its vote-share has plummeted from 24.9 per cent in 2013 to 2.1 per cent and in Tripura from 36.5 per cent to 1.8 per cent.

It has just about managed to pull on a fig leaf in Meghalaya, bagging 21 seats against the 29 seats it had earlier, and is in government through an alliance. Even though it has emerged as the single largest party in this State, given Amit Shah’s persuasive powers, the BJP may yet manage to form an NDA government in this State too, just as it did in Goa and Manipur not so long ago.

The big picture

If one takes a dispassionate look at the big picture, the neglect these States have witnessed and the opportunities they have been denied on job creation, infrastructure development, etc, it is more than evident why the people have voted so decisively for change. Take any five star hotel in the country or the many beauty parlours — there is a sizeable presence of people from the North-East among the staff. Why would they travel so far to work in places where the culture, food habits, etc, are so different, if well-paying jobs were available at home? This is a question the governments which have been thrown out need to answer.

As for India’s oldest party, the Congress, the latest poll outcome reiterates that it is in tatters, notwithstanding its recent victories in bypolls in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. At this rate, in the 2019 General Elections it is unlikely to improve its dismal performance of 2014.

While the BJP deserves kudos for its stunning new victories, it needs to ensure that expectations from the older victories don’t transform into disillusionment and rejection. The faith that the masses have placed in it deserves much more than a chief minister proudly displaying pictures of himself drinking cow’s urine, or BJP leaders glorifying the pakora-seller when asked about job-creation.

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