The loneliness of Nitish Kumar

One of the biggest losers of this general election is likely to be Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who may see his government falling after the new Lok Sabha is formed.

For Nithish, the stakes are more than a few Lok Sabha seats. A poor performance by the JD(U) will impact the survival of his minority government which, as BJP leader Sushil Modi keeps harping, “is propped up by four Congress MLAs” (apart from one CPI legislator and four Independents).

But his slender majority in the 243 seat House, which is already under some pressure following the suspension and resignations of five JD(U) MLAs, is threatened by desertions in the event of a poor Lok Sabha showing.

Nitish himself has admitted that the outcome of the national poll could have a bearing on his state government. Survival by seeking the help of either the Congress or the BJP following the election (which he has anyway ruled out) seems a dim prospect.

While the BJP would have no qualms about bringing a minority government down, Nitish’s tragedy is that he can bid goodbye to his government even in the unlikely event of the UPA returning to power.

A good showing by the RJD-Congress alliance will encourage a resurgent Lalu Prasad Yadav to pressure the Congress into withdrawing support to Nitish and pave the way for his bid to recapture power in the State.

Adding salt to Nitish’s wounds is the very visible Modi strategy of not attacking Lalu too viciously.

In his Chhapra rally, while canvassing for the BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudi, pitted against Rabri Devi in the Saran constituency, Modi kept attacking the famed ma-beta (Sonia-Rahul), even as he referred to the RJD’s first family as Laluji, Rabriji and Misaji.

In the background of the euphoria in the initial phases when opinion polls gave the NDA between 275 and 290, and have now revised the number downwards, this has fuelled speculation that the BJP might open the NDA door for Lalu if the numbers are required.

And the last nail in Nitish’s coffin is JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav, all set for an ignominious defeat from Madhepura, regretting that he had “made” people like Lalu and Nitish, who were all playing caste politics! Of course later, the wily Yadav blamed it on jabaan phislan (slip of the tongue), but the damage had been done.

Yadav’s frustration, as a losing candidate from his stronghold of Madhepura, can be gauged because he was firmly against parting company with the BJP over Modi’s declaration as the BJP’s PM candidate.

But Nitish does have one consolation — many Muslims are openly saying that in the next Bihar Assembly election, their patronage will revert in toto to Nitish. He has fulfilled some of his promises to the community, there haven’t been any riots under his reign and Muslims feel secure under him.

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