As fighting continues in Ukraine, over 2 million refugees have spilled into Poland and neighboring countries, oil prices are $130/barrel, and food shortages are predicted worldwide. In hindsight, former US President Barack Obama appears to be the only western leader who correctly gauged the Russia-Ukraine tensions.

In a 2016 interview in the Atlantic where he applied his doctrine to Ukraine, Obama said, "Russia was much more powerful when Ukraine looked like an independent country but was a kleptocracy that he could pull the strings on. Ukraine is going to be vulnerable to military domination by Russia no matter what we do."

The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines kleptocracy as a government by those who chiefly seek status and personal gain at the expense of the governed. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been steadfastly committed to only one goal for 20 years: Establish Russia's standing among the world's elite nations as a co-equal power.

In his inaugural speech on March 7, 2000, Putin said: "I can assure you I will be guided purely by Russia's interests in my work. There may be mistakes, but I can promise you, and I do promise you that I will work openly and honestly."

Epic mistake

It is a tragedy of epic proportions that Putin has now made his biggest mistake ever. It is an unforced error from which the world will take generations to recover and one that will permanently alter the global alignment of nation-states.

There are numerous clues that the West missed in bringing us to the present. In 2000, the West began wooing Russia, respectful of its status as a nuclear power, to get it to act as a liberal democracy. Russia had oil, minerals, wheat, and natural gas. The West wanted Russia to behave like the post-war Axis powers — Italy, Germany, and Japan — and drive a period of unprecedented global prosperity.

Former US President George W. Bush and Putin met 18 times over the next seven years. Putin built a solid relationship with then French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. They made plans for a Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok as a cooperation mechanism. The elite G-7 countries expanded membership to G-8 to include Russia. The Kumbaya years lasted until 2014.

So, what changed? Again, it was Ukraine. When Russia occupied Crimea, rather than deal with one of its elite members as a co-equal partner, the West unceremoniously expelled Russia from the G-8. Putin took offense to what he saw as the West's manipulation and hypocrisy. In the months leading to the second Iraq war (2003), he had insisted that Russia was unaware of WMD in Iraq. How could the West get things wrong and never face any consequences? And worse, what gives the West the moral authority to punish Russia for similar acts of aggression?

Both Obama and Putin had a clear vision for Ukraine as an independent nation, unaligned with any other country. It explains why Obama did not take aggressive action against Russia when Putin annexed Crimea in 2014. In the Atlantic article, Obama said, "There are ways to deter, but it requires you to be very clear ahead of time about what is worth going to war for and what is not." Obama refused to send weapons to Ukraine and refrained from making any comments about Ukraine and NATO. A keen student of history, Obama understood the deep resentment, over hundreds of years, on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine relationship.

All restraint changed on November 10, 2021. The US and Ukraine entered into a strategic agreement with an entire section devoted to countering Russian aggression: "Bolstering Ukraine's ability to defend itself against threats to its territorial integrity and deepening Ukraine's integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions are concurrent priorities." The deal was a radical departure from Obama's reluctance to engage. Within two months, Russia had amassed 150,000 troops on Ukraine's border.

History will record that the West accepted Putin on its terms and dismissed him on its terms. The US needlessly took sides, and when matters worsened, Russia and the West were forced to double down. We're not yet in a world war, but it is getting frighteningly close to one.

The writer is Managing Director, Rao Advisors LLC, US

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