Straws in the wind

It is tempting to dismiss the Bharatiya Janata Party's embarrassing show in the bye-elections to 10 Assembly seats (across nine States) and four Lok Sabha seats (in three States) as an aberration. With a year to go for the general elections, these results could set the stage for upcoming political campaigns and strategies. The BJP has won one just one Assembly seat in Uttarakhand and a Lok Sabha seat in Maharashtra out of 14 by-elections held in May, which suggests that it cannot afford to be complacent by virtue of ruling in 21 States. A sobering fact is that it has won only five out of 27 Lok Sabha bye-polls held since 2014. Of the 27 constituencies, 14 were sitting BJP seats. All the four LS constituencies that went to polls a few days back were held by the BJP. The BJP’s defeat at Kairana, Uttar Pradesh, should be a particular cause of worry to the party leadership; this follows its loss in March of the Gorakhpur and Phulpur LS seats, vacated by none other than the State’s Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister, respectively. The Kairana loss is significant for a number of reasons. A constituency in Shamli district, in western UP, this region was communally polarised in the aftermath of the 2013 riots. The BJP swept this region in 2014, and in fact the entire State, winning in 71 seats from UP. This time, in an ironic reversal, the issue of sugarcane arrears seems to have prevailed over communal divisions, with Kairana actually electing the State’s only Muslim MP, Tabassum Hasan, on a Rashtriya Lok Dal ticket. It would appear that the voters are rooting for a development agenda.

Meanwhile, a pre-poll alliance of regional parties and the Congress seems to be gaining momentum in north India. In Bihar, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) was decimated by the Rashtriya Janata Dal at the Jokihat assembly seat, once again reminding him that his switchover to the BJP camp was a poor decision. The JD(U)’s identity crisis only underscores how the tables have turned in the political landscape. Unlike in the past, when political opposition was defined vis-a-vis an all-encompassing Congress, it is the BJP, with its widening social base, that is now perceived as a threat. Hence, a range of parties that have earlier had alliances with the BJP – such as Bahujan Samaj Party, Janata Dal (Secular) and Trinamool Congress – are now reconciled to travelling with a less threatening Congress.

One cannot, on the basis of these by-poll results, infer that the BJP is on a sticky wicket in 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity remains intact. His extraordinary ability to connect with the masses and set the campaign discourse have helped the party win tough contests. With Modi as the party’s campaigner-in-chief, the BJP has a lot going for it. But there is little doubt that these by-poll results are a wake up call for the ruling party at the Centre.

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