With the Centre’s initiative, the UN General Assembly declared 2023 as the international year of millets.

Nutri-cereal crops or millets are the main sources of micronutrients such as calcium, fibre, protein, iron, etc. Given the higher level of micronutrient deficiencies among the large population of India, the continuous reduction in area under nutri-cereals can pose a threat to nutritional security.

Recognising the importance of these crops as well as popularizing their value among consumers, the Centre issued a notification changing the name of coarse cereals to nutri-cereals in 2018.

The Centre has also been announcing attractive minimum support price (MSP) for these crops to encourage the farmers to cultivate them. But, despite various efforts, why has the area under nutria-cereals been continuously declining?

Green Revolution impact:

The Green Revolution changed the face of Indian agriculture. While increasing the adoption of technological/yield-increasing inputs in crop cultivation, it also significantly increased the productivity and production of different crops.

Foodgrain production increased from about 72 million tonnes (mt) in 1965-66 to 316 mt in 2021-22. The increased foodgrains production also increased its per capita availability, resulting in the considerable reduction of rural poverty.

While enhancing food security, the Green Revolution has also brought some undesirable changes in the cropping pattern. The area under water-intensive crops (paddy, sugarcane, banana, wheat, etc) increased substantially, whereas the area under less-water consuming nutri-cereal crops declined sharply from 44.34 million hectares (mha) in 1965-66 to 22.65 mha in 2021-22, down 49 per cent.

During the same period, the area under paddy and wheat together increased from 48.04 mha to 76.85 mha, a whopping 60 per cent rise (Figure 1).

Low profitability appears to be the main reason for the drastic reduction of area under nutri-cereals.

The long-term profitability analysis carried out using the cost of cultivation survey data published by the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) from 1971-72 to 2019-20 on the four important nutri-cereal crops — jowar, bajra, ragi and maize — reveals that farmers cultivating these crops have incurred heavy losses or reaped profit in far fewer number of years in terms of cost C2 (which includes all paid-out costs, the imputed value of family labour, rent on leased land plus depreciation value of the fixed investment) over time at 2004-05 prices.

In the case of jowar, Maharashtra’s farmers have reaped profit only in 10 out of 37 years between 1971-72 and 2019-20 for which data is available.

For bajra, Rajasthan’s farmers have reaped profit only in 2 out of 41 years. The ragi-cultivating farmers in Karnataka have reaped profit only in 6 out of 19 years. Though a massive revolution has taken place in the area under maize crop since the early 1990s at all-India level, Rajasthan farmers have reaped profit only in 4 of the 39 years.

Surprisingly, in current prices too, farmers cultivating nutri-cereal crops in major States have incurred heavy losses even in terms of paid-out cost ( Table 1).

Why is Profitability Low?

Could the low profitability be due to unremunerative MSP for nutri-cereals? The data on MSP for different crops shows that the crop price may not be the main reason for the low profitability. The increase in MSP for nutri-cereal crops between 2010-11 and 2022-23 is high as compared to 2000-01 to 2010-11 period.

Between 2010-11 and 2022-23, the MSP increased by 237 per cent for jowar, 167 per cent for bajra, 123 per cent for maize and 271 per cent for ragi, whereas the increase was only in the range of 97-116 per cent between 2000-01 and 2010-11. Not only this, the increase in MSP for nutri-cereals is also high compared to many other crops.

Besides announcing increased MSP, increased crop procurement can boost the farmers to cultivate the crops. The best examples of this are paddy and wheat crops, where the cultivated area of these crops has increased considerably over time mainly because of better procurement.

For instance, the procurement of paddy increased from 3.46 million tonnes (mt) in 1970-71 to 57.58 mt in 2021-22, while wheat procurement increased from 5.09 mt to 43.34 mt during this period.

But, there is no procurement data of nutri-cereal crops at the national level (Food Corporation of India has not published data on the procurement of nutri-cereals so far), though States such as Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh have made efforts to procure nutri-cereal crops in recent years.

The Situation Assessment Survey (SAS) of Farmer Households conducted by the National Statistical Office for 2018-19 shows that the percentage of crops sold under MSP is pathetically low among nutri-cereal crops, ranging from 0 per cent in ragi to 2.9 per cent in jowar.

This is substantially low compared to paddy and wheat, where farmers were able to sell 21-24 per cent of the output under MSP. It is important to understand that without crop procurement, farmers will not be able to gain from the hike in MSP announced every year. The abysmally low levels of procurement is the main reason for the continuous reduction of area under nutri-cereal crops.

Given the increased awareness about the consumption of nutri-cereals in recent times, both the Centre and State governments must make every effort to procure 15-20 per cent of the output of such crops under MSP so that the market price of these crops would move closer to the MSP. Between 1965-66 and 2021-22, India lost about 21.69 mha of the area under nutri-cereals crops, which is a massive amount.

Unless efforts are made to make these nutri-cereal crops profitable through improved procurement, it is difficult to reverse the reduction in their crop area. Policymakers must understand the reduced area under nutri-cereals will not only reduce the income of rainfed farmers but will also accentuate nutritional insecurity.

The writer is former full-time Member (Official), Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, New Delhi

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