Goat Days, a novel by the Malayalam writer Benyamin shows what it means to be an illegal worker in Saudi Arabia. After years of hard labour under the hot Arabian sun, detention and jail, Najeeb, a real-life character, is forced to return home to Kerala, penniless and broken.

Najeeb is an extreme case. But thousands of Indians now face the prospect of forced return from Saudi Arabia after working there illegally for several years. If they don’t get out by July 3, they could be thrown into jail.

The three-month grace period for enforcing the Nitaqat (Arabic for ranges or categories), which aims to replace a section of the large expatriate work force in the country with locals, ends on July 3. The ‘Saudi-isation’ programme, announced in June 2011 in the wake of the Arab Spring, was to have taken effect in April this year. But King Abdulla decreed a three-month extension.

There are more than two million Indians working, legally as well as illegally, in the kingdom. The authorities find them hard working and disciplined. Most of them are from Kerala.

The illegal workers from India are of two kinds: those who arrived on a ‘free visa’ and those who arrived on a ‘visit visa’ and overstayed. Under Saudi law, every foreign worker has to have a ‘sponsor’; he cannot work for another. A worker hired for a particular job cannot change his profession.

But violations of these rules are common. Most ‘free visa’ (actually, there is no such thing as a free visa) workers are those who have jumped sponsorship and professions, and are hence illegal expat workers.

In the run-up to the deadline, the authorities have also launched a drive against illegal workers.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer and exporter and a fast-growing economy, has an estimated nine million ‘legal’ expat workers. Plus, at least two million illegal workers who do not possess valid papers. Non-Saudis make up nearly 40 per cent of the country’s total estimated population of 290 million. That percentage is a big worry for the government.

WHAT IS NITAQAT?

The Nitaqat is a carrot-and-stick incentive programme for companies and businesses to hire more Saudis across a spectrum of jobs. It categorises firms into four colour ranges: blue (premium), green, yellow and red. For example, if a company has 40 per cent Saudis on its under-500-member staff, it is in the blue (premium) category and will enjoy privileges in importing foreign manpower.

If the company has only 12-39 per cent Saudi staff, it will be in the green category and its hiring privileges will be fewer. If a company’s Saudi employees’ percentage is only 6-11 per cent, it will fall in the yellow range, and hence will need to do some extra hiring to fall in line with the Nitaqat .

If the percentage is between 0 and 5, the company is in real trouble: for instance, its foreign staff’s work permits would not be renewed. Meaning: the company will have to fold up. A firm should have at least one Saudi employee, if it has under 10 employees, otherwise, it will fall into the red category. In April this year, there were 2.25 lakh firms and business entities that did not have a single Saudi employee.

Expats from India working for ‘red’ companies will have to leave. Where possible, they can move to ‘green’ and ‘blue’ companies if jobs are available.

The Saudi government has relaxed ‘sponsorship’ rules so that workers in the red companies can seek a transfer without the permission of the sponsor (current employer). Several thousand Indians have made use of this provision.

IT’S POLITICAL, TOO

In a country with one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, particularly educated unemployment, Nitaqat looks quite fair. But, it is also a political tool — aimed to forestall a likely ‘youthquake’ in the wake of the Arab Spring.

Nitaqat is more political than economic,” says the filmmaker and former CPI(M) MLA P.T. Kunhimohammed, who anchors a weekly TV programme that handles non-resident Keralite (NRK) issues. “It shows the Saudi authorities are worried over unemployed youths’ frustrations. At the same time, in a pan-Arab sense, it hints at the assertion of the Arab self.”

EFFECT ON INDIA

How do the Nitaqat and the drive to flush out illegal expats impact India? Thousands will return. Already, some 70,000 people, mostly blue-collar workers, have applied for the Emergency Certificate from the Indian embassy — the highest number of 26,000 is from those hailing from Uttar Pradesh.

The EC is required for those who do not have valid papers to get an exit pass from the Saudi Passport Department.

The Government of India is planning to send special flights to Saudi Arabia to fly back the illegal workers on July 3. State governments have been asked to draw up plans for their rehabilitation.

“The impact of the Nitaqat on India, especially on Kerala, is not as bad as feared,” says R.S. Kannan, Additional Secretary in the NRK Affairs Department. “Initially, we had anticipated a big influx like during the Kuwait war.” Though Kerala has the largest single expat community in Saudi Arabia hardly 6,000 persons had applied for EC, he noted.

One major reason was that the Saudi government had relaxed many rules and facilitated the regularisation of a large number of illegal workers. Previously, those leaving the country on an exit pass could never return to Saudi Arabia. But, the authorities have agreed to allow them to come back again with a valid work visa, if they leave voluntarily now.

Prof. Irudaya Rajan of Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapruam, says the Nitaqat is unlikely to slow down remittances from the Gulf.

IMPACT ON INDIAN BUSINESS

Indian policymakers have looked at the impact of Nitaqat only in terms of job loss, reverse migration and remittances. Indians in Saudi Arabia are not workers only , they are investors and job providers, too. There is a large community of small and tiny entrepreneurs (who often run their businesses technically in the names of Saudis.) This community will take a hit.

Take the case of Radhakrishnan Nair from Perinthalmanna who runs a laundry business in a Saudi city. “I have eight people working for me -- all are Indians,” he says.

“Their average monthly wage is under 1000 Saudi Riyals. Now, to escape the red category, I have to hire a Saudi and pay him a statutory minimum monthly pay of 3000 riyals.”

It is hard to find a Saudi ready to do manual work, and at the minimum wage. “Even if I find one, he would work fewer hours, less efficiently and ask for higher wages,” Nair said. “All told, hiring one Saudi would mean hiring six Indian workers.”

Nair points out that most tiny and small businesses run by Indians would run up high wage bill, and hence higher cost of operation.

K.V. Shamsudeen, who has lived in the UAE for four decades and who is a frequent commentator on NRI issues, believes that since Saudi Arabia is developing fast, there will still be opportunities for Indians at the blue-collar and technical and professional levels. Educated Saudis would prefer white-collar jobs.

Interestingly, the protagonist in Goat Days , in real life, goes back to Saudi Arabia looking for a better life.

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