GLOBAL EYE. The Syrian quagmire

In the cauldron of conspiracy theories and cacophonic utterances over Syria each day, the local Syrian populace have assigned filters to ‘news’ and ‘threats’ issued locally and globally. Certain non-serious threats are assigned as ‘ dawda’ (noise) while the more serious ones are assigned as tahdid (threat).

So when the US conducted drills with rebel forces (anti-Assad faction) in South-Eastern Syria last week, a majority of the Syrians dubbed it ‘dawda’ .

A US military spokesman said the exercises were a show of force and that the Pentagon had notified Moscow through “deconfliction” channels to prevent “miscommunication or escalate tension”. This assertion on preventing of any ‘escalation’ is probably where the Syrians know the US limitation in entering the Syrian quagmire.

However, for an US exercise on Syrian soil, the Iranians are a worried lot. They should be. The exercises weren’t meant for the Syrians. The US outpost where these joint military exercises took place is Al-Tanf, which sits on the strategically significant Baghdad-Damascus highway, which was once a a major supply route for Iranian weapons into Syria.

US dominance on the Al-Tanf base makes it a bulwark against Iran and part of a larger campaign against Iran’s military expansion in the Middle East.

The US military’s new policy to bolster Al-Tanf’s capabilities is a big shift. It signifies that the US is narrowing down its Middle Eastern objectives sharply to that of limiting Iranian influence.

In late August, US National Security Advisor John Bolton asserted that “we’re going to see what we and others can agree in terms of resolving the conflict in Syria. But the one prerequisite there is the withdrawal of all Iranian forces”. Regime change and the stepping down of Assad is suddenly out of their earlier pre-requisite list.

Iran and Syria recently signed an agreement on defence and technical cooperation in Damascus. Iran’s Defence Minister said that the agreement “will define the areas of bilateral presence, participation, and cooperation in defence ties”, adding that Syria has put the era of war behind it and has entered the era of reconstruction. Clearly signifying a reduction in their active military presence in Syria, Iran might be looking at helping reconstruction and de-mining in the post-war effort.

In recent negotiations between Russia and the US, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister’s remarks were telling where he dangled reducing Iranian influence as reconciliation to the US on the Syrian crisis.

But actually reducing Iranian presence against Iranian wishes will be quite the tight rope walk for Assad. Iran is Assad’s only all-weather friend. The Syrian civil war might be coming to a close, but the larger war is far from over. Iran is the one friend Syria needs in the Middle Eastern vicinity.

The only hope for Assad is if Iran volunteers to reduce presence and limit influence to backchannels in Syria.Also, the popular grain in Iran is against foreign intervention or investments into expensive military expeditions, when their own economy is in a downward spiral. Iran’s decision to stay put in Syria or give in to the elbowing might just make the difference. Temporarily at least.

The writer is a geo-political analyst.

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