A recent headline that caught attention was ‘Modi’s fading renewables vision fires up India’s coal sector’. Really! Then, what about reports of coal shortage? And if there is a crisis, what will be situation in the coming summer?

Any renewable solar project requires at least 12-13 months to get on its feet. And this is where thermal steps in, according to industry trackers.

On January 19, the Power and New & Renewable Energy Minister, RK Singh, was quoted as saying: “No country can develop if it does not have sufficient power. The power shortage in India has come down from around 4.5 per cent in 2014 to less than 1 per cent today. We have ensured universal electricity access, connecting 29 million homes in 19 months, which the International Energy Agency called the largest and fastest expansion of energy access in the history of the power sector.”

According to Ritabrata Ghosh, Vice-President & Sector Head, Corporate Sector Ratings, ICRA Ltd, “The country is poised for record coal production of close to 1 billion tonne in FY24, coming very close to the 1.012 billion tonne target that the government had set at the start of the year. This will be the third year in a row of domestic coal production growing at a brisk pace to meet the country’s rising energy demand and helping check costlier imports.”

Recently, Singh said: “The government has addressed the critical issue of power deficiency by adding 196,558 MW of generation capacity since April 2014 transforming our country from power deficit to power sufficient. The government has increased the generation capacity by 72.3 per cent from 248,554 MW in March 2014 to 428,299 MW in December 2023.”

The gap between energy requirement and energy supplied has come down from 4.2 per cent in 2013-14 to 0.3 per cent in 2023-24, he said. Even this gap is generally on account of constraints in the State transmission/distribution network, financial constraints of Discoms etc., he had pointed out.

According to the Ministry:

26,380 MW of thermal capacity is under construction, 11,960 MW has been bid out and 19,050 MW under clearances. The total anticipated thermal capacity addition by 2031-32 will be 93,380 MW.

18,033.5 MW of hydro capacity (including stalled projects) is under construction and the total anticipated hydro capacity addition by 2031-32 will be 42,014 MW.

8,000 MW of nuclear capacity is under construction and the total anticipated nuclear capacity addition by 2031-32 will be 12,200 MW.

103,660 MW of renewable energy capacity is also currently under construction and the anticipated RE capacity addition by 2031-32 will be 322,000 MW.

Thus, a total of 156,073.5 MW of capacity is under construction and the total anticipated capacity addition by 2031-32 will be 469,594 MW.

While generation from these will take time, increase in demand is constant.

Thermal capacity addition basically means increasing both PLF (plant load factor) and the efficiency of the existing capacity. Will depending more on thermal power become a permanent feature in the near future?

Inherent challenges

“Renewable power has the inherent challenges of intermittency, which poses risks to energy grid stability. Till the time we are able to find an economically viable and scalable solution for meeting long duration utility scale energy storage, thermal power will continue to be an important source of base load energy for India,” Ghosh said.

In January, Singh had observed that India has also emerged as a country which is at the forefront of energy transition. “Our rate of renewable capacity addition has been one of the fastest. We have 187 GW of renewable capacity. We had pledged that we will have 40 per cent of our capacity from non-fossil-fuels by 2030, and today, we have 44 per cent of our capacity from non-fossil-fuel sources. We have now upped our target and while we have pledged to have 50 per cent of our capacity from non-fossil-fuel sources by 2030, we shall have 65 per cent of our capacity from non-fossil-sources by 2030.”

“We have about 99 GW of renewable energy capacity under construction and around 32 GW of renewables under bidding stage. We shall be bidding around 40-50 GW of renewable capacity every year. In thermal capacity, we have about 27 GW under construction, we have bid out additional 12 GW, 21 GW more under survey and investigation and a further 22 GW under initial stages. We have 47 GW of hydro capacity installed, 18 GW under construction and 13 GW under various stages of survey and investigation,” he had said.

While arguments continue, what are the issues India is likely to face from climate change advocates? “At a time when developed countries are gradually phasing out coal, India is looking to add 80 GW of coal-based power generation capacity by FY32 to meet its growing energy demand. This can potentially attract criticism from climate change advocates. However, in the last six decades, India accounted for only 4 per cent of the cumulative global CO2 emissions, against around 17 per cent by China, around 20 per cent by Europe, and about 25 per cent by North America,” Ghosh said.

Peak electricity demand is likely to cross 400 GW by 2030, according to the Ministry. So, what will be the right path for India?

“While the West has been able to gradually move away from coal towards natural gas over a period of time, unfortunately, India does not have adequate natural gas, and imported LNG is not cost competitive,” Ghosh said.

“India’s 2070 net zero target is twenty years after the 2050 target for most of the developed world, which gives us more time to choose the technology pathways for the green transition,” he added.

For India, even as it goes on adding renewable capacity, coal will continue to be a dominant fuel in India’s energy mix in the foreseeable future till other viable alternatives emerge. Besides, coal is not just used in the power sector. The way out is to invest more in technology for improving efficiency while reducing dependence on thermal power. There is no either or, India needs both for now.

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