Crude oil prices went up last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) appreciated 3.3 per cent as it closed at $79.1 per barrel. Crude oil futures on the MCX gained 2.5 per cent by ending the week at ₹6,163 a barrel.

Brent futures ($79.1)

Brent futures rallied in the first half of last week. But after facing a roadblock at $80, the bulls lost steam and the price remained largely sideways. 

A falling trendline coincides at the resistance at $80, making it a strong one. Also, the price action hints at fresh sellers coming in at this region.

So, the probability of a fall from here is high. Brent futures has its nearest support at $77.30. A break below this level can pull the contract down to $73. 

But if the resistance at $80 is breached, the short-term outlook can turn positive. Resistance above $80 can be seen at $83 and $85.

MCX-Crude oil (₹6,163)

The January futures of crude oil went up to hit an intra-week high of ₹6,289 on Wednesday before closing at ₹6,163 on Friday.

The resistance at ₹6,300 holds true. The candlesticks on the daily chart over the past week shows that sellers are arriving between ₹6,250 and ₹6,300. So, the chances are high for a fall from here.

While there is a support at ₹6,080, the contract might slip below this level and touch ₹5,750, the next support. Subsequent support is at ₹5,500.

That said, a breakout of ₹6,300 can trigger a rally to ₹6,600 or even to ₹6,750.

Trade strategy: Hold the shorts initiated at an average price of ₹6,105. Retain the stop-loss at ₹6,350. When the contract declines to ₹5,750, tighten the stop-loss to ₹5,900. Liquidate the shorts at ₹5,550.

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