Forex roundup:  Rupee’s mixed signals

Gurumurthy K |BL Research Bureau | Updated on: Mar 12, 2022

The Indian rupee (INR) remained volatile last week. The rupee futures contracts traded on the National Stock Exchange have closed on a mixed note. The rupee weakened against the US Dollar (USD) and the euro (EUR). However, it has strengthened well against the British Pound (GBP) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) last week.

The USDINR and the EURINR March futures contract on the NSE were up 0.26 and 0.42 per cent. The USDINR contract rose to a high of 77.33 on Monday but then fell-back for the rest of the week as the dollar index weakened. The contract has closed the week at 76.56. It has support at 76. While that holds, a bounce-back move to 77 and even 77.50 is possible going forward. But a break below 76 will be very bearish to see 75 and even lower levels. As such the price action at 76 will need a close watch.

The bounce in the EURUSD from the low of 1.08 aided the EURINR to bounce from the low of 83.38 and closed the week at 84.41. Support is at 84. The view is bullish while above 84 to see 85 and 86 levels on the upside in the coming weeks.

The JPY and GBP weakening sharply against the USD dragged the JPYINR (65.52_ and GBPINR (100.42) contract sharply lower last week. The contract closed over a per cent lower. The JPYINR contract has room to test 65 on the downside. Thereafter a fresh bounce towards 66 is possible. GBPINR contract can extend the fall to 99 if it breaks below the immediate support level of 99.8. The contract will have to rise past 100.5 in order to turn the sentiment positive again.

Send your queries to derivatives@thehindu.co.in

Published on March 12, 2022
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