Aluminium futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), which has been on a decline since February, started to consolidate towards the end of June. Since then, it has been oscillating between ₹196 and ₹204.
We can get some cues on the next leg of trend based on the direction of the break of the above-mentioned range. Currently trading at around ₹198, it is hovering near the bottom of the range.
If the contract bounces off the range bottom, it can retest the range top of ₹204 in the coming days. A rally past ₹204 can turn the trend bullish, where the contract might rise to ₹215.
On the other hand, if the contract slips below support at ₹196, the trend can turn bearish. In such a case, the contract can initially drop to ₹186. The downswing could even extend to ₹180.
Trade strategy
As the aluminium futures is trading near the range bottom, the risk-reward is favourable for long positions. Hence, traders can buy the futures at the current level of ₹198. Add more longs in case the price dips to ₹196. Place a stop-loss at ₹194.
When the contract crosses ₹200, tighten the stop-loss to ₹197. Book profits at ₹204.
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