Commodity Calls

Buy MCX aluminium futures above ₹190

Akhil Nallamuthu BL Research Bureau | Updated on April 21, 2021

The continuous futures contract of aluminium on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) turned bullish in May last year. The uptrend continued with intermittent corrections and the latest leg of the rally was established in early February. The nearest expiry i.e., the May futures contract began the rally with the price band of ₹161 and ₹163 as its base.

The up-move has been steady so far and the contract touched a high of ₹190 last week. That said, the bulls seem to be taking a break now as the contract has been moving sideways for the past one week. That is, it is fluctuating within the resistance at ₹190 and the support band of ₹185 and ₹186.

Since the major trend is up, the contract is likely to breach the hurdle at ₹190. The short-term might turn in favour of bears only if the contract breaks below the support at ₹179.

So, until then, the price correction if any can be used to make fresh long entries. Supporting the uptrend, the moving average convergence divergence indicator on the daily chart has been tracing an upward trajectory since the beginning of this month and the daily relative strength index remains in the bullish region.

Moreover, the price is trading comfortably above both 21- and 50-day moving averages.

Considering these factors, one can remain bullish on aluminium. But since ₹190 is a resistance level for May futures, traders can wait for now and go long above ₹190; stop-loss can be at ₹186.

Published on April 22, 2021

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